Blockchain Revolution: from the internet of information to the internet of value

[Shyheels]

Actually, I'm not long in any kind of currency but rather living on the juice of a cracker and trying to learn the words to Brother, Can You Spare A Dime?

[Heelster]

On 8/5/2019 at 9:44 PM, kneehighs said:

Meanwhile, Bitcoin which is Hard Money (hard to inflate, hard to reproduce, basically impossible to fractionally reserve, can't be controlled by any government, unconfiscatable) is quietly doing it's thing leading up to it's May/June 2020 halving.  

The Real War is Easy Money (FIAT) versus Hard Money (Bitcoin).

Buy Bitcoin. (Dollar Cost Average).  It's not just another investment. 

It's a whole new monetary system.

 

A currency that I can't use anywhere I have to buy stuff. Hmmmmmm

[kneehighs]

5 hours ago, Heelster said:

A currency that I can't use anywhere I have to buy stuff. Hmmmmmm

Being a currency is not required to have a valid use case.

Gold's market cap is 9 Trillion which is larger than the market cap of Amex, Master Card, Visa, PayPal and Square combined. Gold isn't used to buy stuff either.

While bitcoin has the properties of currency (portable, durable, divisible, fungible, easily transferable) it's youth makes it a speculative store of value.  As time progresses it's price curve will flatten. Then it's utility to function as a medium of exchange and unit of account will increase.

My portfolio since the crisis drop is up 40%, largely thanks to my bitcoin position.  Relative to others I mingle with, this is quite low.

EDIT below

Consider Universa Investments (<--link), a black swan hedge fund, was up 3,600%+ last quarter: Bloomberg <--link

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the scientific advisor.  

"Bitcoin is “winning,” according to the 59-year-old author, and "currency without government is “great.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb <--link 

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by kneehighs
add Universa Investments info

[Cali]

Currency is currency is what it's worth.  Today I found out that I could get my car washed for two rolls of toilet paper.

[kneehighs]

Brexit

Trump nationalism

Japan funds 2B for companies to move supply chain out of China

We live in an era of DeGlobalization

People can't pay their rent

Landlords can't pay their mortgages

Retail Banks will get bailed out before the people???  After 2008???  And trillions being printed to cover COVID/quarantine demand shocks? 

Enter, global financial reset.  

Retail Banks go bust.

Central Banks replace them.  If consumers had 1K in retail banks, Central Bank gives consumer a new wallet (bet smart phone is required) with 1K of fresh "Fed Coins" in it.  So consumer loses no money.

It will be Digitally based since paper money can pass COVID or other mutations of viruses.  

Imagine the surveillance that could come with the new Fed Coin?  No vaccine?  No coins.  Coins could be issued with expiration dates programmed to be spent in segments of economy that are suffering.  

Imagine ZOOM calls with billion dollar deals done across 5 countries.  Which government collects taxes and in which government denominated Fed Coin will transactions be settled in?   It'll need to be figured out to keep commerce flowing. 

You better believe in an deglobalized environment, countries will fight.  Probably why China already released their own digital wallets tested in 4 cities.  Infrastructure first mover advantage.

Yet, one a-political money could offer a solution across international borders.  A neutral solution.

Just my 2 sats.

(just my thoughts on the situation.  Not financial advice etc).

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by kneehighs

[kneehighs]

On 3/16/2020 at 2:14 AM, kneehighs said:

The US Bond market is a 100 Trillion dollar market.  If Bonds now yield less than inflation, the entire bond market will be at risk. 

Oil without the ability to store it changes that oil from an asset to a liability.

Bonds will experience something similar.

Rates at zero

repayment in debased money

changes a bond from an asset to a liability.

Just my two sats.

Edited April 21, 2020 by kneehighs

[kneehighs]

If you have 30 minutes leisure time, you might be interested in reading the thoughts of Raoul Pal on the global macro environment now.

 

Raoul co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world.

Raoul was Head of the Goldmans Sachs Hedge Fund for Sales Business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe 

https://bit.ly/RaoulPalApril2020MacroReport

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by kneehighs

[kneehighs]

On 4/20/2020 at 11:12 PM, kneehighs said:

Oil without the ability to store it changes that oil from an asset to a liability.

Bonds will experience something similar.

Rates at zero

repayment in debased money

changes a bond from an asset to a liability.

Just my two sats.

Pattern recognition?

[Kjones92]

On 4/18/2020 at 8:45 AM, kneehighs said:

Brexit

Trump nationalism

Japan funds 2B for companies to move supply chain out of China

We live in an era of DeGlobalization

People can't pay their rent

Landlords can't pay their mortgages

Retail Banks will get bailed out before the people???  After 2008???  And trillions being printed to cover COVID/quarantine demand shocks? 

Enter, global financial reset.  

Retail Banks go bust.

Central Banks replace them.  If consumers had 1K in retail banks, Central Bank gives consumer a new wallet (bet smart phone is required) with 1K of fresh "Fed Coins" in it.  So consumer loses no money.

It will be Digitally based since paper money can pass COVID or other mutations of viruses.  

Imagine the surveillance that could come with the new Fed Coin?  No vaccine?  No coins.  Coins could be issued with expiration dates programmed to be spent in segments of economy that are suffering.  

Imagine ZOOM calls with billion dollar deals done across 5 countries.  Which government collects taxes and in which government denominated Fed Coin will transactions be settled in?   It'll need to be figured out to keep commerce flowing. 

You better believe in an deglobalized environment, countries will fight.  Probably why China already released their own digital wallets tested in 4 cities.  Infrastructure first mover advantage.

Yet, one a-political money could offer a solution across international borders.  A neutral solution.

Just my 2 sats.

(just my thoughts on the situation.  Not financial advice etc).

 

 

 

Might be worse than great depression they say. Been aware about this for a while now, now thinking how i can plan ahead. Im a student so my hands are tied a bit, although im still employed .

 Only this year i realised fiat currencies are not  real money, lol.  Gold is too expensive and harder to get now, so going to reserch crypto in general. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Kjones92

[kneehighs]

23 hours ago, Kjones92 said:

Might be worse than great depression they say. Been aware about this for a while now, now thinking how i can plan ahead. Im a student so my hands are tied a bit, although im still employed .

 Only this year i realised fiat currencies are not  real money, lol.  Gold is too expensive and harder to get now, so going to reserch crypto in general. 

Just please, manage your risk.  Fear and Greed drive the market.  Know where your positions are at in the greater macro bull/bear cycles, know your Risk/Reward ratios.  Know that Bitcoin price action drives all crypto market price action, know that price action will always accrue first to Bitcoin, the large cap alts, then mid cap alts, etc

Then there's this, "The Bank of England has predicted that the coronavirus crisis will push the UK economy into its deepest recession in 300 years" 

And today, famed Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones stated his positions in Bitcoin, "The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse....If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin.”

Just my two sats.

Edited May 7, 2020 by kneehighs

[Bubba136]

This whole economic situation is one giant crapshoot.  You can make plans, analyzes till the cows come home but nobody really knows how things are going to turn out.  I’m back on the farm.  I Have the land, ability and know how to grow enough food to feed myself. And I have a gun, a big dog and a lots of bullets to keep it. Kinda looks like it’s time to go back to the drawing board.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Bubba136

[Heelster]

1 hour ago, Bubba136 said:

This whole economic situation is one giant crapshoot.  You can make plans, analyzes till the cows come home but nobody really knows how things are going to turn out.  I’m back on the farm.  I Have the land, ability and know how to grow enough food to feed myself. And I have a gun, a big dog and a lots of bullets to keep it. Kinda looks like it’s time to go back to the drawing board.

Yep - - Bullets will carry way more value than Crypto.

Sign at a book store - -  "" Post Apocalyptic / Dystopian has been moved to Current Events. ""

[kneehighs]

No one has a crystal ball.   

From my end though, it's quite simple really.  The deflation caused by technology is outpacing the growth achieved by inflation.   It's why 185 Trillion in debt has only created 45 Trillion in return over the last 20 years.  A smart phone now has the processing power the Pentagon computers had in 1980, for a pittance of the cost of those original super computers.  A single overnight video rental used to cost $7 at a Blockbuster brick and mortar store.  Now that same $7 gets you unlimited streaming from Netflix for a whole month.

Deflation caused by technology is outpacing growth achieved by inflation.  Analog laws and statutes rooted in inflationary policy can't keep up with the exponential gains rooted in new digital technology advances. 

The conflict between technology deflation and overall global debt growth is now at a crossroads.  

And it is my opinion that this global reset, this new world order, will likely include a deflationary monetary model born out of the digital era.  I won't be surprised if FinTech/Silicon Valley replaces retail banking either.

Just my two sats.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by kneehighs

[Bubba136]

Realistically, while technology will aid in producing a better corn crop, you can grow corn without it.  And, you can eat the corn while you’re going to go hungry if all you have is technology.  Time to straighten out the financial structure is after you figure out how to feed yourself.  Original technology is land, a sharp stick and a handful of seeds and pray for rain.

 

[p1ng74]

The “internet of value” isn’t just in crypto.  It’s in this productivity gain from technology that you mentioned.  There are companies that are marching right along this crisis right now with no layoffs and minimal impact to their overall earnings, despite significant contraction to revenue. How?  A huge cost also disappeared from the bottom line, travel and related expenses, and increased productivity from remote internet work has suddenly been unleashed.  

[Cali]

But I just don't think a Zoom visit to the dermatologist works for me.

[kneehighs]

I'll tell you what I'd like to see. 

I'd like to see allocation of stimulus packages go to top performing VC firms. 

If we're going to start supply chains from scratch, start with the best allocators of start up capital.  Let them allocate the money to create new jobs.  Not the government.

Profits can go to government.

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by kneehighs

[p1ng74]

I think the point of the stimulus is to soften the abruptness of the disruption, rather than fuel it.  I don’t think the availability of start up capital is a significant constraint in the US?

[Heelster]

13 hours ago, p1ng74 said:

A huge cost also disappeared from the bottom line, travel and related expenses, and increased productivity from remote internet work has suddenly been unleashed.  

Somewhere along the line, you still have to apply the technology to the physical - - - - and that's where I'm at. If your going to apply technology to farming, you still need someone on a tractor. If your going to make something, someone still needs to be there to take the technology to actually produce the component. I'm a technology user and have to apply it to the physical, and sometimes it drives me nuts.

Where technology fails - - ?? Ever try to change your car head light bulb and wonder who the hell designed this monstrocity? Yep - an engineer who never worked on a car.

I see it all the time. Engineers who design stuff that can't be made. People who come up with great ideas and wonder why the people who have to do it tell them it's the stupidest thing they've ever seen.

Every now and then, I get to weild my digital 2 x 4, reach around the world, and smack somebody's avatar upside the head.

[kneehighs]

7 hours ago, p1ng74 said:

I think the point of the stimulus is to soften the abruptness of the disruption, rather than fuel it.  I don’t think the availability of start up capital is a significant constraint in the US?

With 1/5 Americans filing for unemployment, the government should invest $1 Trillion in new startups to make stuff in the US.  Want supply chains out of China?  Want new jobs? 

Give the top 100 VC firms $1 Billion each to deploy & let the government get the returns.  Not just Software As A Service (SaaS) either.  Across all sectors.

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by kneehighs

[p1ng74]

Right, technology is not inherently productive, it is only productive when applied towards increase productivity.  There are some good studies out there showing that when the internet was first made available to office workers, productivity went down because people wasted so much time with it.  This is especially true with e-mail, which is now pretty much obsolete when it comes to being a differentiating technology in productivity.  
 

When it comes to automotive engineering, I find that they often are focused more on streamlining manufacturing, rather than service and repair.  This is why there are so many plastic clips everywhere instead of screws and nuts.  A clip just snaps into place and it is assembled.  When servicing, it’s just a bunch of frustration and broken clips.  Even when Henry Ford selected the new Phillips screws it was to increase productivity primarily in manufacturing.  
 

@kneehighs  I think markets can drive the need to shift the supply chain and innovate.  East Asia has been taking the approach that I think you are suggesting for the last 60 years, with a very hands on government approach to distribution of capital, but I think that is necessitated by capital shortage.  On the other hand, it would be interesting to see what kind of return we have yielded on US attempts to support startups, such as in the renewable energy sector, as that might show how effective or ineffective such programs are.  

[Heelster]

57 minutes ago, p1ng74 said:

When it comes to automotive engineering, I find that they often are focused more on streamlining manufacturing, rather than service and repair

Do some research on GM's EV1 project. One of the reasons they eliminated the car was because their was no service business, and dealerships rely on the service department.

[p1ng74]

1 hour ago, Heelster said:

Do some research on GM's EV1 project. One of the reasons they eliminated the car was because their was no service business, and dealerships rely on the service department.

GM had pretty good control over the business model of the EV1 since it was offered as lease only.  To eliminate the risk and factors of service over a longer vehicle life cycle they just took the cars back after the lease.  It was essentially a test car offered in limited markets and volumes.  Pure unit life cycle profitability was not high on their list.  

[Bubba136]

You smart guys can figure out how to reconstruct the economy and how it works and how to pay for it.  Meanwhile, my crops are in the ground and woe be unto anyone of these people that believes they are entitled to share them without my permission.  They’re in for a huge surprise.  As the old southern saying goes.  Trespassers will be shot.  Survivors will be prosecuted!

As anyone might be able to guess, I am not interested in restoring the world economy.  I am interested only in feeding myself and mine until such time as normal commerce is restored.

Edited May 10, 2020 by Bubba136

[Cali]

6 hours ago, Heelster said:

Somewhere along the line, you still have to apply the technology to the physical - - - - and that's where I'm at. If your going to apply technology to farming, you still need someone on a tractor. If your going to make something, someone still needs to be there to take the technology to actually produce the component. I'm a technology user and have to apply it to the physical, and sometimes it drives me nuts.

Where technology fails - - ?? Ever try to change your car head light bulb and wonder who the hell designed this monstrocity? Yep - an engineer who never worked on a car.

I see it all the time. Engineers who design stuff that can't be made. People who come up with great ideas and wonder why the people who have to do it tell them it's the stupidest thing they've ever seen.

Every now and then, I get to weild my digital 2 x 4, reach around the world, and smack somebody's avatar upside the head.

You haven't seen the tractors that are able to do it all with no operator?  It similar to driver-less cars. Levels, plant, harvest.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Cali

[p1ng74]

2 hours ago, Bubba136 said:

You smart guys can figure out how to reconstruct the economy and how it works and how to pay for it.  Meanwhile, my crops are in the ground and woe be unto anyone of these people that believes they are entitled to share them without my permission.  They’re in for a huge surprise.  As the old southern saying goes.  Trespassers will be shot.  Survivors will be prosecuted!

As anyone might be able to guess, I am not interested in restoring the word economy.  I am interested only in feeding myself and mine until such time as normal commerce is restored.

I think the "economy" has different definitions depending on who you ask.  The stock market, as many like to reference, has a speculation factor, and therefore reflects some future, potential value, rather than current value.  Emotions are at play.  When it goes down, much of the numerical value lost may have nothing to do with actual loss in tangible production, but rather a broad switch from being optimistic to being more pessimistic.  There are healthy rises and falls in optimism, and we shouldn't be quite so obsessed with "restoring" a "economy" that reflects excess optimism.  As Warren Buffet said, "you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."  Regardless of what the speculators do, life moves along.  The seasons still progress, crops are planted, animals grow and produce.  For those of us that are living off of the land, it often feels like a much needed dose of sanity.  If you happen to know me, I'd be happy to sell you the excess, because we can't eat it all ourselves.  

Edited May 9, 2020 by p1ng74

[kneehighs]

(Off topic: backed the truck up and 20X margin longed that dip).  

Back to regular scheduled programming about the economy.

[Shyheels]

11 hours ago, Heelster said:

Somewhere along the line, you still have to apply the technology to the physical - - - - and that's where I'm at. If your going to apply technology to farming, you still need someone on a tractor. If your going to make something, someone still needs to be there to take the technology to actually produce the component. I'm a technology user and have to apply it to the physical, and sometimes it drives me nuts.

Where technology fails - - ?? Ever try to change your car head light bulb and wonder who the hell designed this monstrocity? Yep - an engineer who never worked on a car.

I see it all the time. Engineers who design stuff that can't be made. People who come up with great ideas and wonder why the people who have to do it tell them it's the stupidest thing they've ever seen.

Every now and then, I get to weild my digital 2 x 4, reach around the world, and smack somebody's avatar upside the head.

The Sydney Opera House is a great example. Beautiful though the design was, in 1960, when it was designed, the technology did not exist to actually build the thing. It ended up causing a great deal of friction between the architect and the engineers and a massive cost blow out. 

[kneehighs]

16 hours ago, kneehighs said:

(Off topic: backed the truck up and 20X margin longed that dip).  

Lost on that trade.  Didn't even risk .01% of my portfolio. 

Looking for oversold bullish divergence on RSI, 4 hour chart for new margin longs.  Waiting for lower lows.

[kneehighs]

On 9/13/2017 at 4:24 AM, Shyheels said:

And this from the boss of JP Morgan this morning:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/13/bitcoin-fraud-jp-morgan-cryptocurrency-drug-dealers

"Honestly, I am just shocked that anyone can't see it for what it is," he said.

Seems I am in good company in my distrust of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency transactions....

In history, for a short time in the mid 90's, large banks didn't want to do business with internet companies because the net was seen as shady.

These same large banks also seek to establish relationships early in client industry lifecycles.  Customer demand = money.  

Yesterday Bitcoin's daily issuance halved.  

And yesterday JP Morgan announced it will now be servicing Coinbase and Gemini, two of the largest crypto exchanges in the US. 

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/jp-morgan-offers-banking-services-coinbase-gemini