Blockchain Revolution: from the internet of information to the internet of value

[kneehighs]

Still in cash. Untouched by SBF/FTX/Alameda debacle.  Friends who followed my advice saved $. Waiting for FTX/Alameda contagion selling to exhaust itself.  Close to a generational bottom for sure.

 

[kneehighs]

Long term game plan for making millions in crypto 

1.  Traditional stock market S&P 500 has one more leg down.  Probably 15%.  Bitcoin also drops 15%, not more and not less. Why? Because all the leverage is already flushed out of crypto.  Exchange balances have collapsed.  FTX exchange shut down. FTX founder arrested.  So it's not a high beta to the SPX at this stage.

2.  So much money has been printed since Covid, it has to go somewhere. It's out there.  Thus, I see strong technical support for the SPX at 3200.   

3.  US FED reduces rate hiking to 25 BPS, but keeps it there for awhile.  If I had to guess, they keep it there till Summer.  

4.  Long with size in when FED pivots.  2024/2025 Bull market gains will be made.  

 

[kneehighs]

I changed my bias. 

Started Dollar Cost Averaging in. 

15-30K $USD positions daily. 

I am prepared for the market to turn against me, but now believe my Macro analysis doesn't really provide edge. Why? Because everyone has the same macro analysis. By the time the FED pivots, true life changing money will be on table. 

Edited January 15 by kneehighs

[Shyheels]

Good luck with it! I shall cheer from the sidelines 

[kneehighs]

Thanks!

[kneehighs]

There's 12 emotional archetypes created by Carl Jung. 

Studies by Young and Rubicam indicate companies who revolve their marketing message around just one archetype outperform other companies with mixed archetype messages.  Nike's "Just Do It" evokes the Hero Archetype, for example.  The same holds true for movies. Titanic also evokes the Hero Archetype as does Star Wars (good vs bad).

I asked Chat GPT which archetype would most apply to men who wear heels. It's answer was quite reasonable.  It even left room for individual answers too.

[Shyheels]

A fairly good definition I’d say

[hiddenheels]

Impressive!

[kneehighs]

Funny how the FED works isn't it? They told the banks rates would be low. Forced banks to loan out at 2-3%. Then the FED spiked rates to 5%+ a year later.  In the US, that amounts to about 2 Trillion in unrealized losses for banks. Is your cash deposit safe at a bank that's insolvent? 

And it's even more funny the US regulators knew about this but hid it from the public. 

And now the same thing is happening in Europe. Except it's worse. Many banks bought negative interest rate treasuries. Then the ECB spiked rates. Unless the rates went even more negative, the Euro banks are equally if not more insolvent than the US banks.

This is why Bitcoin was invented. Buy Bitcoin.  Self custody it on a cold wallet.   And walla, counter party risk of a bank run is instantly solved. Just don't lose your private keys (password).