Blockchain Revolution: from the internet of information to the internet of value

[kneehighs]

Still in cash. Untouched by SBF/FTX/Alameda debacle.  Friends who followed my advice saved $. Waiting for FTX/Alameda contagion selling to exhaust itself.  Close to a generational bottom for sure.

 

[kneehighs]

Long term game plan for making millions in crypto 

1.  Traditional stock market S&P 500 has one more leg down.  Probably 15%.  Bitcoin also drops 15%, not more and not less. Why? Because all the leverage is already flushed out of crypto.  Exchange balances have collapsed.  FTX exchange shut down. FTX founder arrested.  So it's not a high beta to the SPX at this stage.

2.  So much money has been printed since Covid, it has to go somewhere. It's out there.  Thus, I see strong technical support for the SPX at 3200.   

3.  US FED reduces rate hiking to 25 BPS, but keeps it there for awhile.  If I had to guess, they keep it there till Summer.  

4.  Long with size in when FED pivots.  2024/2025 Bull market gains will be made.  

 

[kneehighs]

I changed my bias. 

Started Dollar Cost Averaging in. 

15-30K $USD positions daily. 

I am prepared for the market to turn against me, but now believe my Macro analysis doesn't really provide edge. Why? Because everyone has the same macro analysis. By the time the FED pivots, true life changing money will be on table. 

Edited January 15 by kneehighs

[Shyheels]

Good luck with it! I shall cheer from the sidelines 

[kneehighs]

Thanks!

[kneehighs]

There's 12 emotional archetypes created by Carl Jung. 

Studies by Young and Rubicam indicate companies who revolve their marketing message around just one archetype outperform other companies with mixed archetype messages.  Nike's "Just Do It" evokes the Hero Archetype, for example.  The same holds true for movies. Titanic also evokes the Hero Archetype as does Star Wars (good vs bad).

I asked Chat GPT which archetype would most apply to men who wear heels. It's answer was quite reasonable.  It even left room for individual answers too.

[Shyheels]

A fairly good definition I’d say

[hiddenheels]

Impressive!

[kneehighs]

Funny how the FED works isn't it? They told the banks rates would be low. Forced banks to loan out at 2-3%. Then the FED spiked rates to 5%+ a year later.  In the US, that amounts to about 2 Trillion in unrealized losses for banks. Is your cash deposit safe at a bank that's insolvent? 

And it's even more funny the US regulators knew about this but hid it from the public. 

And now the same thing is happening in Europe. Except it's worse. Many banks bought negative interest rate treasuries. Then the ECB spiked rates. Unless the rates went even more negative, the Euro banks are equally if not more insolvent than the US banks.

This is why Bitcoin was invented. Buy Bitcoin.  Self custody it on a cold wallet.   And walla, counter party risk of a bank run is instantly solved. Just don't lose your private keys (password). 

[kneehighs]

SEC sues Coinbase and Binance, two of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world

The week after BlackRock and Fidelity file to Bitcoin spot ETFs

Then Citadel, Deutsche Bank, and Nasdaq

*All at the same time*

It's crystal clear to me traditional finance wants control over the fastest appreciating asset class in history

Bull run scheduled for 2024/2025

[kneehighs]

BUYING LARGER POSITIONS HERE

The 50 Week Moving Average on Bitcoin has bottomed.

Historically, 6 months later, the price is higher 100% of the time.

My time horizon to sell is late 2024, early 2025 depending on market factors of course. 

[kneehighs]

On 1/15/2023 at 6:06 PM, kneehighs said:

I changed my bias. 

Started Dollar Cost Averaging in. 

15-30K $USD positions daily. 

I am prepared for the market to turn against me, but now believe my Macro analysis doesn't really provide edge. Why? Because everyone has the same macro analysis. By the time the FED pivots, true life changing money will be on table. 

Bitcoin was at 19.9K when I wrote this

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind we are preparing for another spectacular bull run in 2024-2025

 

[alphax]

Here's a question for more knowledgeable bitcoin enthusiasts:

Is there factoring in the increasing cost of maintaining bitcoin by mining?

Bitcoin's ledger is only updated because of ongoing mining, i.e. solving increasingly complex mathematical puzzles to earn bitcoin, and get awarded the right to update the blockchain ledger.

Given that energy is increasingly expensive, especially fossil-fuel based energy, is there a point where the cost of maintaining the ledger through mining outweighs the value of the utility of the currency, or even the value of the currency itself?

Professional bitcoin miners have to purchase computer server hardware, buy or rent facilities to house the servers, pay for the energy that they consume, personnel to operate and maintain the servers and facilities, etc.

I have heard that the bitcoin mining community is set on staying with "proof of work" i.e. the current mining model for maintaining the ledger.

This is as opposed to "proof of stake" which is where currency holders commit their holdings for the right to update the ledger, for which they are rewarded with additional currency. This is a much less energy intensive process.  To be fair, I really don't know how this works.

The best known example a cryptocurrency using of "proof of stake" is Ethereum 2.0

[Shyheels]

I’d say you’ve come to the right place with your questions. I do not understand anything about crypto and prefer to keep my meagre funds in things I do understand, but @kneehighsseems to be a genuine expert on the subject 

[kneehighs]

On 9/16/2023 at 10:31 PM, alphax said:

Here's a question for more knowledgeable bitcoin enthusiasts:

Is there factoring in the increasing cost of maintaining bitcoin by mining?

Bitcoin's ledger is only updated because of ongoing mining, i.e. solving increasingly complex mathematical puzzles to earn bitcoin, and get awarded the right to update the blockchain ledger.

Given that energy is increasingly expensive, especially fossil-fuel based energy, is there a point where the cost of maintaining the ledger through mining outweighs the value of the utility of the currency, or even the value of the currency itself?

Professional bitcoin miners have to purchase computer server hardware, buy or rent facilities to house the servers, pay for the energy that they consume, personnel to operate and maintain the servers and facilities, etc.

I have heard that the bitcoin mining community is set on staying with "proof of work" i.e. the current mining model for maintaining the ledger.

This is as opposed to "proof of stake" which is where currency holders commit their holdings for the right to update the ledger, for which they are rewarded with additional currency. This is a much less energy intensive process.  To be fair, I really don't know how this works.

The best known example a cryptocurrency using of "proof of stake" is Ethereum 2.0

I'm not sure how to answer all your questions except that in the next 10-15 years, I foresee the price of Bitcoin stabilizing.  Price will enter the Late Stage Slow Growth part of the S-curve after the parabolic tops from ETFs/AI/ are achieved.   This in turn will make things more predictable, reduce risk the comes from price volatility, and make it easier to manage investment decisions.  As Michael Saylor states, "Bitcoin mining is the most efficient, cleanest industrial use of electricity and is improving its energy efficiency at the fastest rate across any major industry. No other industrial energy consumer is so well suited to monetize excess power as well as curtail flexibly during periods of energy shortfall & production volatility. Bitcoin mining is a global industry that provides economic opportunity to people all over the world."