Blockchain Revolution: from the internet of information to the internet of value

[kneehighs]

Still in cash. Untouched by SBF/FTX/Alameda debacle.  Friends who followed my advice saved $. Waiting for FTX/Alameda contagion selling to exhaust itself.  Close to a generational bottom for sure.

 

[kneehighs]

Long term game plan for making millions in crypto 

1.  Traditional stock market S&P 500 has one more leg down.  Probably 15%.  Bitcoin also drops 15%, not more and not less. Why? Because all the leverage is already flushed out of crypto.  Exchange balances have collapsed.  FTX exchange shut down. FTX founder arrested.  So it's not a high beta to the SPX at this stage.

2.  So much money has been printed since Covid, it has to go somewhere. It's out there.  Thus, I see strong technical support for the SPX at 3200.   

3.  US FED reduces rate hiking to 25 BPS, but keeps it there for awhile.  If I had to guess, they keep it there till Summer.  

4.  Long with size in when FED pivots.  2024/2025 Bull market gains will be made.  

 

[kneehighs]

I changed my bias. 

Started Dollar Cost Averaging in. 

15-30K $USD positions daily. 

I am prepared for the market to turn against me, but now believe my Macro analysis doesn't really provide edge. Why? Because everyone has the same macro analysis. By the time the FED pivots, true life changing money will be on table. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by kneehighs

[Shyheels]

Good luck with it! I shall cheer from the sidelines 

[kneehighs]

Thanks!

[kneehighs]

There's 12 emotional archetypes created by Carl Jung. 

Studies by Young and Rubicam indicate companies who revolve their marketing message around just one archetype outperform other companies with mixed archetype messages.  Nike's "Just Do It" evokes the Hero Archetype, for example.  The same holds true for movies. Titanic also evokes the Hero Archetype as does Star Wars (good vs bad).

I asked Chat GPT which archetype would most apply to men who wear heels. It's answer was quite reasonable.  It even left room for individual answers too.

[Shyheels]

A fairly good definition I’d say

[hiddenheels]

Impressive!

[kneehighs]

Funny how the FED works isn't it? They told the banks rates would be low. Forced banks to loan out at 2-3%. Then the FED spiked rates to 5%+ a year later.  In the US, that amounts to about 2 Trillion in unrealized losses for banks. Is your cash deposit safe at a bank that's insolvent? 

And it's even more funny the US regulators knew about this but hid it from the public. 

And now the same thing is happening in Europe. Except it's worse. Many banks bought negative interest rate treasuries. Then the ECB spiked rates. Unless the rates went even more negative, the Euro banks are equally if not more insolvent than the US banks.

This is why Bitcoin was invented. Buy Bitcoin.  Self custody it on a cold wallet.   And walla, counter party risk of a bank run is instantly solved. Just don't lose your private keys (password). 

[kneehighs]

SEC sues Coinbase and Binance, two of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world

The week after BlackRock and Fidelity file to Bitcoin spot ETFs

Then Citadel, Deutsche Bank, and Nasdaq

*All at the same time*

It's crystal clear to me traditional finance wants control over the fastest appreciating asset class in history

Bull run scheduled for 2024/2025

[kneehighs]

BUYING LARGER POSITIONS HERE

The 50 Week Moving Average on Bitcoin has bottomed.

Historically, 6 months later, the price is higher 100% of the time.

My time horizon to sell is late 2024, early 2025 depending on market factors of course. 

[kneehighs]

On 1/15/2023 at 6:06 PM, kneehighs said:

I changed my bias. 

Started Dollar Cost Averaging in. 

15-30K $USD positions daily. 

I am prepared for the market to turn against me, but now believe my Macro analysis doesn't really provide edge. Why? Because everyone has the same macro analysis. By the time the FED pivots, true life changing money will be on table. 

Bitcoin was at 19.9K when I wrote this

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind we are preparing for another spectacular bull run in 2024-2025

 

[alphax]

Here's a question for more knowledgeable bitcoin enthusiasts:

Is there factoring in the increasing cost of maintaining bitcoin by mining?

Bitcoin's ledger is only updated because of ongoing mining, i.e. solving increasingly complex mathematical puzzles to earn bitcoin, and get awarded the right to update the blockchain ledger.

Given that energy is increasingly expensive, especially fossil-fuel based energy, is there a point where the cost of maintaining the ledger through mining outweighs the value of the utility of the currency, or even the value of the currency itself?

Professional bitcoin miners have to purchase computer server hardware, buy or rent facilities to house the servers, pay for the energy that they consume, personnel to operate and maintain the servers and facilities, etc.

I have heard that the bitcoin mining community is set on staying with "proof of work" i.e. the current mining model for maintaining the ledger.

This is as opposed to "proof of stake" which is where currency holders commit their holdings for the right to update the ledger, for which they are rewarded with additional currency. This is a much less energy intensive process.  To be fair, I really don't know how this works.

The best known example a cryptocurrency using of "proof of stake" is Ethereum 2.0

[Shyheels]

I’d say you’ve come to the right place with your questions. I do not understand anything about crypto and prefer to keep my meagre funds in things I do understand, but @kneehighsseems to be a genuine expert on the subject 

[kneehighs]

On 9/16/2023 at 10:31 PM, alphax said:

Here's a question for more knowledgeable bitcoin enthusiasts:

Is there factoring in the increasing cost of maintaining bitcoin by mining?

Bitcoin's ledger is only updated because of ongoing mining, i.e. solving increasingly complex mathematical puzzles to earn bitcoin, and get awarded the right to update the blockchain ledger.

Given that energy is increasingly expensive, especially fossil-fuel based energy, is there a point where the cost of maintaining the ledger through mining outweighs the value of the utility of the currency, or even the value of the currency itself?

Professional bitcoin miners have to purchase computer server hardware, buy or rent facilities to house the servers, pay for the energy that they consume, personnel to operate and maintain the servers and facilities, etc.

I have heard that the bitcoin mining community is set on staying with "proof of work" i.e. the current mining model for maintaining the ledger.

This is as opposed to "proof of stake" which is where currency holders commit their holdings for the right to update the ledger, for which they are rewarded with additional currency. This is a much less energy intensive process.  To be fair, I really don't know how this works.

The best known example a cryptocurrency using of "proof of stake" is Ethereum 2.0

I'm not sure how to answer all your questions except that in the next 10-15 years, I foresee the price of Bitcoin stabilizing.  Price will enter the Late Stage Slow Growth part of the S-curve after the parabolic tops from ETFs/AI/ are achieved.   This in turn will make things more predictable, reduce risk the comes from price volatility, and make it easier to manage investment decisions.  As Michael Saylor states, "Bitcoin mining is the most efficient, cleanest industrial use of electricity and is improving its energy efficiency at the fastest rate across any major industry. No other industrial energy consumer is so well suited to monetize excess power as well as curtail flexibly during periods of energy shortfall & production volatility. Bitcoin mining is a global industry that provides economic opportunity to people all over the world."

 

 

[kneehighs]

Nice pump on Bitcoin. Frankly, for now I think it's just capital rotation from high risk alt coins into low risk Bitcoin.  Money already within the crypto ecosystem is circulating from risk on to risk off assets. Why? Crypto ecosystem is trying to front run the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF.

[kneehighs]

I bought Ethereum between 85-250 USD last cycle. Sold it at 3300 each

Bought BTC at 5100. Sold it between 50,000-60,000

Now is the time to accumulate positions for the next bull cycle.  

50% in Ethereum/Solana (Solana will be the #1 blue chip this cycle)

50% in alts.  

See you guys on the shores of Lake Como when I celebrate my new winnings.

[kneehighs]

The golden bull run of 2024/2025 is coming soon.

Liquidity cycles, presidential cycles and the Bitcoin Halving all lining up simultaneously.  Add in simultaneous approval of Bitcoin ETF's and Black Rock ETH ETF, and we are well on our way to peak Euphoria. No buyer demand for US 30 year Treasury. Dollar will lose globally currency reserve status starting 2030, imho. Putin and EuraAsia see it. EU and US? Not so much yet.

I'll be shaving Bitcoin profits in segments, starting at 80k, 99k, and letting the rest run

If you invest in alt coins, make sure to reduce risk by finding coins that have outperformed Bitcoin. This reduces risk and maximizes reward.  Leading narratives this cycle will be gaming, AI, and tokenized Real World Assets (Rolex's are being traded on chain now. Eventually real estate will also be traded as NFT's because crypto automates the labor intensive paper work process inherent in real estate transactions).

See you on Lake Como in my heels!

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by kneehighs

[kneehighs]

I don't know if anyone is actually reading this thread. I view it more as a diary, since it displays all my flaws in market thinking back to the 2017 bull run as well as gains.

For this coming cycle, I see $KAS as a really solid bet. Why?

1. No preallocation. When most new tokens are launched now, they pre-allocate to the founders. Or they premine. Or they raise money through Venture Capitalists which guarantees a pump, but also a dump by the VC's when their vesting period expires.  KAS was launched fair. No pre-allocation, no ICO, no premine.  This is huge.

2. The fair launch minimizes regulatory risk.  No centralized authority creates singular point of failure. 

3. It's a Proof of Work Coin like Bitcoin. Not Proof of Stake.

4. Also, KAS has outperformed Bitcoin over the last year (826%), month (121%), and week (38%).  

5. It's a large cap token, relative to the crypto economy. Large caps maintain less risk than small caps. 

5. End of cycle target is $3-5

6.  A 20X from here could be had. That's 2000% ROI.  Means if you invest 1K USD, it could be 20K USD at end of cycle. Naturally, you are smart and will taking profits on the way up

[Shyheels]

I read your thread.  Most of it goes straight over my head and indeed the chances of my investing in crypto are precisely nil. Mind you, the chances of my investing in anything are precisely nil - one first requires capital and that’s a detail I’ve never quite been able to iron out…

[kneehighs]

52 minutes ago, Shyheels said:

I read your thread.  Most of it goes straight over my head and indeed the chances of my investing in crypto are precisely nil. Mind you, the chances of my investing in anything are precisely nil - one first requires capital and that’s a detail I’ve never quite been able to iron out…

Ah, thanks for tolerating my journey to competency.  Building net worth seems to be a skill most people are challenged with. Society teaches us to get income, but the reality is net worth creates more freedom in terms of time and money than income from a job.  It really requires an open mind and deprogramming what our parents and older generations handed down to us.  (Unless one is lucky to grow up in a family that taught entrepreneurism or investing as a skill).

Edited November 17, 2023 by kneehighs

[Shyheels]

I totally agree - although in the world of creatives where neither increased net worth nor income is a likely outcome to one’s endeavours, the surest way to freedom is to work out ingenious ways of reducing your wants and needs and learning how to live on the juice of a cracker. And be satisfied. 

[Bubba136]

Natural human traits are:  food on the table, clothing on our back and a roof over our head— and a woman for warmth and comfort.  Investing and financial management are learned.  Others, like yourself, find investing and converting/growing assets as a vocation that quickly acquires all of the characteristics a “game.” Once it becomes a game, it’s a “Gamble.”  Eighty percent of the world’s population are content with “going-along ‘coming along.” Satisfied with life as they have it.  

After my “required retirement,” I was afforded, along with a situation I Inherited, sufficient income to raise a family and have very comfortable life.  Having no desire to remain inactive, and by chance, falling into a situation whereby I accidentally found a vocation that I could enjoy participating in, I chose to invest in reconstructing financially failing businesses rather than investing in the stock market.

Nothing is “Forever.”  Life, anyway you look at it, is a crapshoot.  The bottom line— take what you have and be satisfied or try to make it better. It’s your choice.

[kneehighs]

On 11/17/2023 at 2:55 PM, Shyheels said:

I totally agree - although in the world of creatives where neither increased net worth nor income is a likely outcome to one’s endeavours, the surest way to freedom is to work out ingenious ways of reducing your wants and needs and learning how to live on the juice of a cracker. And be satisfied. 

"Contentment comes not so much from great wealth as from few wants" Epictetus

On 11/17/2023 at 4:34 PM, Bubba136 said:

Natural human traits are:  food on the table, clothing on our back and a roof over our head— and a woman for warmth and comfort.  Investing and financial management are learned.  Others, like yourself, find investing and converting/growing assets as a vocation that quickly acquires all of the characteristics a “game.” Once it becomes a game, it’s a “Gamble.”  Eighty percent of the world’s population are content with “going-along ‘coming along.” Satisfied with life as they have it.  

After my “required retirement,” I was afforded, along with a situation I Inherited, sufficient income to raise a family and have very comfortable life.  Having no desire to remain inactive, and by chance, falling into a situation whereby I accidentally found a vocation that I could enjoy participating in, I chose to invest in reconstructing financially failing businesses rather than investing in the stock market.

Nothing is “Forever.”  Life, anyway you look at it, is a crapshoot.  The bottom line— take what you have and be satisfied or try to make it better. It’s your choice.

"The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all."  Ecclesiastes 9:11

I always tell people life is more like a game of poker than a game of chess.  Why? Because in chess you can see all possible outcomes.  In poker, decisions are based on uncertainty and incomplete information. So life is like a game of probabilities.

Edited November 19, 2023 by kneehighs

[Shyheels]

I’d agree with you on the probability front. In fact I’d call life a crap shoot. Faster and more furious than poker.

I'm fully in agreement with Epictetus.

And if course there are different ways of reckoning wealth. I have very few assets and little money but I have also had quite a remarkable life in terms of travel and unusual experiences. I’ve seen a hell of a lot of the world and have a rich stock of memories. Sure, you can’t eat memories but I’ve not missed many meals and since the final result for all of us is the same, I’d just as soon have the memories over the money.

 

 

[kneehighs]

11 hours ago, Shyheels said:

I’d agree with you on the probability front. In fact I’d call life a crap shoot. Faster and more furious than poker.

I'm fully in agreement with Epictetus.

And if course there are different ways of reckoning wealth. I have very few assets and little money but I have also had quite a remarkable life in terms of travel and unusual experiences. I’ve seen a hell of a lot of the world and have a rich stock of memories. Sure, you can’t eat memories but I’ve not missed many meals and since the final result for all of us is the same, I’d just as soon have the memories over the money.

 

 

My grandma filled out a "get to know me" book when she was old. She remarked she would have traveled more if she could have changed anything about the way she lived.  Was it because she was a woman and loves to spend $$$$? 😂, I think it's a common theme among the elderly actually. 

As you were a photographer I can assume you had exclusive access to a lot of cool experiences. Well done!

[Shyheels]

I still am a photographer! And yes I did have a lot of cool experiences. I think that in the end, unless you’ve been a truly dreadful person, most people regret more the things they didn’t do rather than the things they did.

the only overseas trip my father ever made was to go to war (WWII). Ditto my grandfather (WWI)

I’ve been very lucky.

[kneehighs]

For anyone interested in dabbling with crypto, Feb/March 2024 are probably the last great buying opportunity before the Golden Bull run starts.  

I expect Bitcoin to break it's 69K All Time High price sometime in Q3-Q4 2024

For me, I will start shaving profits once BTC clears 80K. Many will get caught in the euphoria stage thinking price will skyrocket to $250K etc. It won't. 

Remember, buy the fear and sell the greed.  My top measures for Greed will be

1.  Coinbase is number one downloaded app on app store

2.  Mainstream celebrities start promoting crypto en masse (Katie Perry 2017, Giselle and Tom 2021)

3.  YouTube influencers also start promoting worthless projects en masse

4.   Parabolic Open Interest.   If OI is going up faster than spot, then there's a risk for at least a local top

https://coinalyze.net/category-all_excluding_btc_and_eth/open-interest/

5.  Meme Coin Mania. When coins like Shiba or DOGE start doing 10,000% gains in 1-2 months, it's likely over

 

[kneehighs]

On 8/11/2017 at 9:36 AM, kneehighs said:

Blockchain is happening folks, for real: http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/08/10/institutional-investors-move-bitcoin-ethereum

Goldman Sachs: “Whether or not you believe in the merit of investing in cryptocurrencies (you know who you are), real dollars are at work here and warrant watching,” Goldman Sachs said according to Bloomberg."

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), US’s biggest options exchange, is to soon offer bitcoin options and futures trading following an agreement with Gemini Trust after CFTC approved Ledger X for clearing derivatives on July 24th.

 

How times have changed, eh? I gotta laugh at the comments that mocked Bitcoin.

All the people in this thread mocking what Black Rock and Fidelity are selling to their clients. For what it's worth, I doubt these clients even fully understand Bitcoin. The sales call, if one even occurs, probably goes something like "BlackRock here. Larry has a new ETF. He wants to get you to 1%.  It's our best performing ETF in history. $5B of inflows in 5 weeks." Client "Do it". Click

Imagine fading Bitcoin now. Ethereum also has ETF's coming in May. So it'll get a bid too. 

https://x.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1757905177196298331?s=20

Edited February 15 by kneehighs

[kneehighs]

Now that Bitcoin is starting to gain attention again, if anyone has time to read this article it makes the strongest case that Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto is Len Sassaman.

I'd bet money on it. Satoshi's online footprint and Len's peaked at the same hours of the day, they both spoke the same kind of British english, Satoshi made reference to Euros too.

And most importantly, Len roomed in San Francisco with the creator of Bit Torrent, Bram Cohen. Bram started an online Peer-to-Peer marketplace called Mojo Nation. Mojo Nation was powered by "Mojo" coins. It collapsed due to hyper inflation. 

Thankfully, Bitcoin has the 21 Million limit in supply forever. I wonder why?

https://evanhatch.medium.com/len-sassaman-and-satoshi-e483c85c2b10