kneehighs Posted September 19, 2020 Author Posted September 19, 2020 But why not create a misalignment between supply and demand across time! We got the FED committed to infinite liquidity, committed to low (possibly negative even) interest rates, and even committed to inflation! The longer this goes on, the greater will be the adjustment to realign output with demand to return the economy to sustainable economic growth with rising standards of living. Negative rates just create misalignment between demand and output. No bueno! At least there's hope though! 35,000 publicly traded companies carry a total of 5 TRILLION in spare cash (Apple anyone?). It's literally their fiduciary responsibility to preserve the purchasing power of their moolah. It took MicroStrategy (MSTR) 6 months to authorize and complete their purchase of 425 Million USD of Bitcoin. So if other boardrooms take 9-12 months to approve and buy Bitcoin with just 1% of that 5T cash war chest, Bitcoins market cap would go to 2 Trillion. A boy can dream! Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted September 23, 2020 Author Posted September 23, 2020 On 4/18/2020 at 3:45 AM, kneehighs said: Enter, global financial reset. Retail Banks go bust. Central Banks replace them. If consumers had 1K in retail banks, Central Bank gives consumer a new wallet (bet smart phone is required) with 1K of fresh "Fed Coins" in it. So consumer loses no money. It will be Digitally based since paper money can pass COVID or other mutations of viruses. Well wouldn't you know. CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Mester, "Legislation has proposed that each American have an account at the Fed in which digital dollars could be deposited, as liabilities of the Federal Reserve Banks, which could be used for emergency payments" https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/speeches/sp-20200923-payments-and-the-pandemic.aspx Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 3, 2020 Author Posted October 3, 2020 The last week has been incredibly tumultuous for crypto markets. 150 Million Dollars were hacked from an Asian Exchange, KuCoin. BitMex, the leading derivatives platform for crypto globally was prosecuted by the US Government President Trump tested Positive for COVID 19. In all this, one would expect another March Black Swan capitulation sell off of 30%+ Yet the crypto market has barely even slumped 4% This means demand for crypto is so high right now, it's able to keep price up despite all the tragic news. Long term bullish. Mid term bullish. Short term neutral. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 9, 2020 Author Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) John McAfee gets prosecuted Uncertainty about new US stimulus. Uncertainty about US election outcome. UK bans derivatives trading for crypto (stupid move considering futures are a key part of risk management. Why not ban all futures?) Yet Jack Dorsey CEO of Square invests 50 Million of Square's treasury into Bitcoin and the crypto market goes UP. Considering The global reserve currency (USD), The global reserve asset (US Treasury), and Euro will be devalued even more in the coming few years, Bitcoin and precious metals (Silver and Gold mostly) provide the best Risk to Reward ratio among any asset class in existence Edited October 9, 2020 by kneehighs Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 12, 2020 Author Posted October 12, 2020 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-boe-bailey-bitcoin/boes-bailey-sees-little-intrinsic-value-in-bitcoin-idUSKBN26X2AH Bailey still promoting a false narrative that bitcoin needs to have intrinsic value to act as a medium of exchange Unless it's a tree to live in, or a fruit to eat, or an orange to squeeze juice from, a commodity does not have true intrinsic value. And bitcoin is a scarce digital commodity. A paper euro, pound or dollar bill either derives it's value from Government laws and military force or by social consensus. It's value is purely extrinsic. You could even make the argument that a Venezuelan Bolivar has more intrinsic value than a USD b/c you can at least use the paper to wipe up a mess on a floor. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
Shyheels Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 I’m sure there are Venezuelans who would love to find somebody who believed that so they could swap even. I don’t think they’ll find many US dollar holders eager to make such an exchange though
kneehighs Posted October 13, 2020 Author Posted October 13, 2020 I agree with that. It's about a difference between buying power and intrinsic value. There is a difference. Some creative Venezuelans were making bags from worthless notes. I'd trade for that! https://time.com/5265941/venezuelan-migrants-bolivares-banknotes/ Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
Shyheels Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 If they could reach a market with those bags they could probably sell them for hard currency as curios
kneehighs Posted October 13, 2020 Author Posted October 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Shyheels said: If they could reach a market with those bags they could probably sell them for hard currency as curios As long the Curio central bank covid relief policy doesn't devalue their curios, they should be okay! Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 19, 2020 Author Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) On 4/18/2020 at 3:45 AM, kneehighs said: Retail Banks will get bailed out before the people??? After 2008??? And trillions being printed to cover COVID/quarantine demand shocks? Enter, global financial reset. Retail Banks go bust. Central Banks replace them. If consumers had 1K in retail banks, Central Bank gives consumer a new wallet (bet smart phone is required) with 1K of fresh "Fed Coins" in it. So consumer loses no money. It will be Digitally based since paper money can pass COVID or other mutations of viruses. Imagine the surveillance that could come with the new Fed Coin? No vaccine? No coins. Coins could be issued with expiration dates programmed to be spent in segments of economy that are suffering. The IMF is calling for a A NEW BRETTON WOODS MOMENT (https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/10/15/sp101520-a-new-bretton-woods-moment) Bretton Woods is where the US Dollar became the Global Reserve Currency back in 1944. Central Bank digital currencies 3-5 years from now at scale. They'll all work together at debasing the entire global fiat currency system. For a 1000 years + now, people have been able to preserve their buying power by holding Gold. The new gold will be Bitcoin. Stay stuck in the stone ages at your own peril. Edited October 19, 2020 by kneehighs Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
Shyheels Posted October 19, 2020 Posted October 19, 2020 What's wrong with the old gold? It's durable, has many practical uses, has great brand recognition - everyone's heard of it - a long history, universal acceptance and it's pretty...
p1ng74 Posted October 19, 2020 Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, Shyheels said: What's wrong with the old gold? It's durable, has many practical uses, has great brand recognition - everyone's heard of it - a long history, universal acceptance and it's pretty... It's a commodity with limited supply. I guess it's too stable and boring for those who want to get rich quickly 😛 Edited October 19, 2020 by p1ng74
kneehighs Posted October 19, 2020 Author Posted October 19, 2020 11 hours ago, Shyheels said: What's wrong with the old gold? It's durable, has many practical uses, has great brand recognition - everyone's heard of it - a long history, universal acceptance and it's pretty... Nothing wrong with gold at all. I've said it many times in past posts. If demand for Gold goes up, it's supply will increase as miners will do more work. Unlike Gold, Bitcoin's total supply can be independenlty audited at anytime by anyone. https://www.blockchain.com/explorer And unlike Gold, Bitcoin's supply is fixed. 1 hour ago, p1ng74 said: It's a commodity with limited supply. I guess it's too stable and boring for those who want to get rich quickly 😛 What's wrong with getting rich quickly if you know how to manage risk? It took Gold 3259 days, or 107 months, or almost 9 years to break it's old All Time High established in September of 2011. Plus, Gold dropped 45% in nominal value during that period. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) Risk management bullet point? If Trump contests the election, be prepared for sharp sell offs in risk assets (risk off environment). Edited October 21, 2020 by kneehighs Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
Heelster Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, kneehighs said: Risk management bullet point? If Trump contests the election, be prepared for sharp sell offs in risk assets (risk off environment). I'm thinking we are gonna see this sell off regardless. I'm inclined to think Novemer to February are going to be rough on the markets and the overall economy.
Cali Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 Look at what's happening in Europe and the Midwest. Cases are growing and it only going to get worst. People may be fooled by a mild case, but the real issues will come in 5 10 15 years from now when they find out that some organ/tissue was scared. Maybe they will be sterile, maybe they will have a lung problem. It going to be a long rough winter!
p1ng74 Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 Yeah we never know how much longer any of us really have here on Earth. Seize the day, wear the heels! 1
kneehighs Posted October 29, 2020 Author Posted October 29, 2020 On 7/10/2020 at 5:57 PM, kneehighs said: In my opinion, a New World Order (New World Money Paradigm) is coming within the decade. The Dutch Guilder wasn't the global reserve forever. Neither was the British Pound. And if you measure the time between major events in the US, an average human life cycle of about 80 years separates them all: American Revolution (excess taxation)--->human life cycle Civil War (money printing to finance war)-->human lifecycle Great Depression/WW2/Bretton Woods [Bretton Woods is where the US Dollar became the global reserve currency]-->human life cycle COVID-19/2020 I hope everyone is paying attention here. Your buying power is at risk of being eaten alive by the coming Central Bank Digital Currency movement. Central Bank Digital Currencies are quickly becoming the norm of international innovation. Instead of monetizing debt on government's balance sheets, money will literally just be printed at the press of a button. Instead of waiting for opposing political parties to legislate stimulus for the people, Central Banks can bypass lengthy bureaucratic red tape, press a button, and like magic, a new stimulus deposits into a recipients mobile phone app. China is way ahead of the US in structuring theirs. China could say to all foreign corporations, "if you want access to our economy, you must do business in our Central Bank Digital Currency" Government surveillance of spending will be unprecedented. Behavioral economics, not the free market economy, will play a massive role in Central Bank monetary policy decisions. If Trump wins, I am prepared for a more nationalistic US "Fed Coin". If Biden wins, I am prepared for a more internationally cooperative Central Bank Digital Currency, pegged to a basket of global currencies, like what The International Monetary Fund called for with a new Bretton Woods. Cryptocurrency may very well play a role in undermining Central Bank Digital Currency surveillance and control mechanisms. If the West takes the position that economic opportunity is best served by a decentralized free market, that traditional banks can build layers of service on top of decentralized financial blockchains, that the true freedom that symoblizes Western liberties is best served by decentralized foundations--then there's hope for the West to come out on top in this new era. But if traditional banks get greedy and want to lobby against the decentralized financial community, they might be putting the US global financial leadership at risk. This will unfold in the 2020's. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted June 20, 2022 Author Posted June 20, 2022 (edited) Coming in to update this thread. I haven't worked in over a year. Bought BTC at 5K-10K. Sold at 28K and 55K Bought ETH at 150-200. Sold at 3.3K Bought another alt coin at $150 USD in 12/19. Sold for 10.5K USD in August 2021 Haven't worked in a year. And still got suites in Positano, private boat tours in Lake Como, and despite what everyone thinks now about crypto being dead again, I'm living my best life ever now. For what it's worth, I think until the US Federal Reserve pivots their position on Quantitative Tightening *and* inflation peaks, it'll be hard to call a broader market bottom. For the short term, I believe Bitcoin may have achieved a "local" bottom. This is not a broader generational bottom. So I'm still all cash for now. I look forward to selling at projected market peak in Q4 2024. On 4/18/2020 at 9:45 AM, kneehighs said: Central Banks replace them. If consumers had 1K in retail banks, Central Bank gives consumer a new wallet (bet smart phone is required) with 1K of fresh "Fed Coins" in it. So consumer loses no money. It will be Digitally based since paper money can pass COVID or other mutations of viruses. Imagine the surveillance that could come with the new Fed Coin? No vaccine? No coins. Coins could be issued with expiration dates programmed to be spent in segments of economy that are suffering. Watch this video with Jay Powell, President of the US Federal Reserve, touching upon Central Bank Digital Currencies in the US. Edited June 20, 2022 by kneehighs Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted August 10, 2022 Author Posted August 10, 2022 (edited) On 6/20/2022 at 6:15 PM, kneehighs said: ...For what it's worth, I think until the US Federal Reserve pivots their position on Quantitative Tightening *and* inflation peaks, it'll be hard to call a broader market bottom. For the short term, I believe Bitcoin may have achieved a "local" bottom. This is not a broader generational bottom. So I'm still all cash for now. I look forward to selling at projected market peak in Q4 2024. ETH merge will be a massive "sell the news event". It's scheduled for September 19th Once ETH hits 2.2K, I'll start taking profits. (was all cash June 20, but flipped *very short term* bull). Don't care if I sell too early. I never regret taking profits, especially in a bear market relief rally. This rally will reverse. Once we hear everyone say the bear market is finally over, that's when the rally reverses. Was thinking about taking a small gamble position in $SHIB for giggles. Maybe it pumps near end of this relief rally Edited August 10, 2022 by kneehighs Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted September 19, 2022 Author Posted September 19, 2022 Monthly update. I honestly have no idea what the markets will do. So I'm just pretending here, with my best analysis. Since big banks got bailed out in the US back in 2008, we've experienced unprecedented Quantitative Easing (QE). QE 1, QE2, low interest rates (credit based economic growth increases in low credit rate environments) and globalized supply chains. All these factors contributed to unprecedented stock market gains. Since things have changed, I'm currently referencing the Amazon chart from the pre and post Dot Com Bubble. The US Fed wasn't quantitative easing then. They're not QE now either. Amazon was the dot com leader. BTC is the crypto leader. The world was coming out of the dot com bubble then, The world is coming out of the crypto bubble now. Structurally, Amazon in 2000 looks almost exactly like BTC in 2020-2021. Interesting how the human emotions of fear and greed rhyme over time. The chart suggest a generational low in September 2023 at the latest The chart also suggests a price pump in 2024/2025. There is confluence with this as the Bitcoin halving occurs in April/May 2024 My bet is the Russia/Ukraine war resolves by April 2024's Bitcoin halving My bet is new higher rates of inflation get normalized by April 2024's Bitcoin halving My bet is the Russian gas challenge gets resolved by April 2024's Bitcoin halving. So the Bitcoin halving will catalyze a price pump for crypto in 2024/2025. Amazon pumped 1000% from it's Oct 2001 bottom to October 2003 top. The Bitcoin halving falls right inside that same chart strucure In conclusion, bullish for 2024/2025 Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted September 28, 2022 Author Posted September 28, 2022 The UK just triggered the last stage of a failed empire/currency by turning their printer back on. Pension funds may have gone insolvent without money printing. If QE continues, debts in pounds will become worthless. It will not be accepted for debt. They don’t have reserve currency status If this follow the pattern of fiat the last 1k years, it’s over for the $GBP Bitcoins time isn’t here yet, but value of self sovereign custody of hard assets coming to a theater near you soon Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 16, 2022 Author Posted October 16, 2022 Last bull cycle SOLANA 50,000%+ MATIC 45,000%+ DOT 1,700%+ What do they all have in common? They're Layer 1 or Layer 2 alternatives to Ethereum. When ETH transactions increase, throughput slows and gas fees users have to pay increase. So if history rhymes, which it usually does, then APTOS ($APT) might also pump. At best, it's able to perform 160K Transactions Per Second. So unlike ETH, adoption can increase without increasing transaction times or transaction costs to the user. It's not listed yet. Main net launch is scheduled for November 2022. Cons/risks? First, Andreseen Horowitz, Binance, and Alameda among others are top investors. Venture Capital funds tend to use retail hype as exit liquidity. Second, it's valuation pre main net launch is 2B. That creates risk VC's will dump on first listing to secure principal and increase ROI. Third, it's vesting schedule (tokenomics in crypto language) isn't yet released. Means we don't know yet if market makers are locked in for 6 months from listing on an exchange or they can dump right away. I'll be watching very closely. Pros? it has enormous financing from massive market makers in crypto. They will surely pump the hell out of the token. Alameda pumped Solana. I assume they'll pump this too Will I be buying? Yes. If the chart starts to look like $DYDX upon listing, not so good. If the chart starts to look like Solana upon listing, could be life changing money. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 18, 2022 Author Posted October 18, 2022 ahh, everything happens at lightening speed in crypto. APTOS main net launched already. Team rushing to front run SUI competitor. 9 exchanges will list spot token trading: Binance, Coinbase, ByBit, FTX, KuCoin, Bitfinex, Huobi + more Binance will list perpetual contracts. APTOS team begging Binance not to. Why? Contracts allow shorting. Core investment thesis remains. Wait to see if chart action rhymes with DYDX or SOL. If like DYDX, no go. If like SOL, I'm a buyer. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 23, 2022 Author Posted October 23, 2022 The US FED popped the 2000 dot com bubble, popped the 2007/8 housing bubble, popped the 2021 everything bubble. Don't fight the FED. Now local FED officials are talking about "stepping down". The $DXY (US Dollar Index) is dropping off a cliff, indicating market is rotating out of safety into riskier assets. At least for mid term elections. And local FED officials are also talking about not "overtightening" After nominal losses in global wealth now exceed 2008 Housing Crisis drawdowns, I think we're close to a stock market bottom Base case for crypto? If no new leg down by Q1 '23 (post midterm elections), 18-20K was bottom for Bitcoin. If new leg down Q4 '21, then confirms that is bottom. Regardless, we are in final innings of bear market. Risk assets tend to follow Last In, First Out (LIFO). In an uptrend, the higher the risk the asset is, the later in the cycle bulls/algorithms rotate money to it. In a downtrend, the higher the risk the assets is, the faster in the cycle algorithms rotate money out of it. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 25, 2022 Author Posted October 25, 2022 On 4/18/2020 at 9:45 AM, kneehighs said: Brexit Trump nationalism Japan funds 2B for companies to move supply chain out of China We live in an era of DeGlobalization People can't pay their rent Landlords can't pay their mortgages Retail Banks will get bailed out before the people??? After 2008??? And trillions being printed to cover COVID/quarantine demand shocks? Enter, global financial reset. Retail Banks go bust. Central Banks replace them. If consumers had 1K in retail banks, Central Bank gives consumer a new wallet (bet smart phone is required) with 1K of fresh "Fed Coins" in it. So consumer loses no money. It will be Digitally based since paper money can pass COVID or other mutations of viruses. Imagine the surveillance that could come with the new Fed Coin? No vaccine? No coins. Coins could be issued with expiration dates programmed to be spent in segments of economy that are suffering. Imagine ZOOM calls with billion dollar deals done across 5 countries. Which government collects taxes and in which government denominated Fed Coin will transactions be settled in? It'll need to be figured out to keep commerce flowing. You better believe in an deglobalized environment, countries will fight. Probably why China already released their own digital wallets tested in 4 cities. Infrastructure first mover advantage. Yet, one a-political money could offer a solution across international borders. A neutral solution. Just my 2 sats. (just my thoughts on the situation. Not financial advice etc). 🤣 NAILED IT. Years ago. RISHI SUNAK barely in office for 24 hours and already explicitly calling for Central Bank Digital Currency adoption. People here afraid to adapt. Opt out if you have the skills/means to live agrarian and independent lifestyle. Or survive by learning to use self custody crypto wallets. They improve pseudo anonymity, improve privacy, don't require government surveillance to move money, and increase difficulty for governments to tell you how to use your money. They're not fail proof, but they certainly are an improvement over the government data harvesting your every transaction. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 27, 2022 Author Posted October 27, 2022 Adapt or suffer. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted October 29, 2022 Author Posted October 29, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 4:00 PM, kneehighs said: Now local FED officials are talking about "stepping down". The $DXY (US Dollar Index) is dropping off a cliff, indicating market is rotating out of safety into riskier assets. At least for mid term elections. After nominal losses in global wealth now exceed 2008 Housing Crisis drawdowns, I think we're close to a stock market bottom Base case for crypto? If no new leg down by Q1 '23 (post midterm elections), 18-20K was bottom for Bitcoin. If new leg down Q4 '21, then confirms that is bottom. Regardless, we are in final innings of bear market. Risk assets tend to follow Last In, First Out (LIFO). In an uptrend, the higher the risk the asset is, the later in the cycle bulls/algorithms rotate money to it. In a downtrend, the higher the risk the assets is, the faster in the cycle algorithms rotate money out of it. As always, the average retail speculator now assumes stocks are going to zero. Typical herd thinking with no financial edge. FED will probably normalize new higher rates from 3-4%, instigating the next bull run. Most people won't see this coming because they are too wrapped up in assuming the news cycle accurately reflects asset price cycles. News flash: if you're making financial decisions based on news cycles you have no edge on the market and are already behind. Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted November 8, 2022 Author Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) On 10/23/2022 at 4:00 PM, kneehighs said: Base case for crypto? If no new leg down by Q1 '23 (post midterm elections), 18-20K was bottom for Bitcoin. If new leg down Q4 '21, then confirms that is bottom. Regardless, we are in final innings of bear market. Base case for long term investing remains same Flipping my short term bias back into cash now. Historically, crypto dumps after midterm US elections. After the November 14, 2014 elections, Bitcoin dumped 66% in 60 days to it's generational bottom After the November 6, 2018 elections, Bitcoin dumped 51% in 39 days to it's generational bottom If Bitcoin price takes a further leg down between now and January 14, 2023, I will be taking substantial positions: $ETH for safety $MATIC $ARBITRUM (will be my biggest position when it becomes available) $NEAR Edited November 8, 2022 by kneehighs Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
kneehighs Posted November 9, 2022 Author Posted November 9, 2022 Staying in $USD now. Given context of this Black Swan event, gonna wait for dust to settle Feminine Style . Masculine Soul. Skin In The Game.
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