Blockchain Revolution: from the internet of information to the internet of value

[Shyheels]

Sometimes there are good reasons for Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt...

[kneehighs]

Agreed.  Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.  

[Shyheels]

And from what I can see this whole Bitcoin thing has been one huge greed-rush.

[kneehighs]

It's just the beginning.  

Also I'd like to challenge you with due respect Shyheels.  You have no skin in the game, as far as I can tell.  If you are so sure that crypto is a losing proposition, short it.  I don't mean this in a disrespectful way, but endless talk is cheap.  

 

[Shyheels]

That whole game is one I would stay well clear of - had I money to invest that is. That is a luxury freelance photographers and writers seldom have. That doesn’t mean I couldn’t Or shouldn't form opinions. I might have views on cocoa futures or Apple stocks or a racehourse’s chances on the derby too, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that I need to bet every thought or hunch. 

 

 

[meganiwish]

These are the rules for betting:

Only bet on a certainty

Never bet more than you can afford to lose

Know that you can be certain and wrong.  You'll probably lose (see above)

[at9]

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

 

That style of "investment" is definitely not for me.

 

Megan will know the quote without having to look it up.

Edited February 7, 2018 by at9

[Shyheels]

If only I had a good enough grasp of literature to recall the source of those lines....

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by Shyheels

[at9]

I noticed the bold "if" only just in time.

If "ifs" and "ands" were pots and pans.....

[Shyheels]

20 minutes ago, at9 said:

I noticed the bold "if" only just in time.

If "ifs" and "ands" were pots and pans.....

There'd be no work for tinkers' hands...

[meganiwish]

18 hours ago, at9 said:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

 

That style of "investment" is definitely not for me.

 

Megan will know the quote without having to look it up.

Indeed, I do:

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew/To serve your turn long after they are gone

Grampa Simpson misquotes it, ''And, which is more, my son, you'll be a man.'  (Homer)  'You'll be a bonehead.'

I like this too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8yqRBGw1Ys

Edited February 8, 2018 by meganiwish

[Shyheels]

On the subject of poetry and gambling, it's hard to go past this pearl from Mad Magazine back in the day:

(A parody of Casey at the Bat)

 

The table wasn't breaking for the Vegas crowd that night

The house was up twelve big ones with no change of luck in sight

So when Epstein came out snake eyes, and Spinelli missed his point;

A mood of deep depression could be felt throughout the joint;

 

The dollar betters, cleaned of cash, were heading out the door

But all the big high rollers stayed to even up the score

They said: "If only Casey had a chance to roll the dice

We'd have a shot to change our luck which now is cold as ice."

 

Then suddenly their eyes lit up, a cry rose from their lips

It echoed off the slot machines, it rattled off the chips

It rumbled through the blackjack games while cards were being dealt

For Casey, Lucky Casey, was advancing to the felt

 

His nails were cleanly manicured, his face was richly tanned

His suit was iridescent silk that cost him half a grand

The cufflinks on his sheer batiste were rubies from afar

Between his teeth he coolly smoked a ninety-cent cigar

 

There was ease in Casey's manner as he calmly placed his bet

His hands were steady as a rock, his palms were free of sweat

The other shooters, now revived, together had one goal

To place each C-note they had left on Casey and his roll

 

With confidence he gripped the cubes, his bearing cool and calm

Then blowing on them softly let them nestle in his palm

"A seven, dice," he murmured as he looked up to the sky

And a hush went 'round the table as he raised his arm on high

 

The cool is drained from Casey's face, his eyes are tense and keen

And all along his sun-drenched brow deep furrows can be seen

And now he firmly holds the dice, and now he lets them go

And now the air is shattered by the force of Casey's throw

 

Oh somewhere in this wealthy land there is a happy spot

Where naturals are being rolled and dice are running hot

And somewhere men are doubling up and winners scream and shout

But there is no joy in Vegas - Lucky Casey has crapped out

 

 

[meganiwish]

Quite so

[alphax]

(post self deleted)  If I can't say something nice, I shouldn't say it at all.

@kneehighsI hope your investment capital and of course your person are both safe and sound.

Edited February 9, 2018 by alphax

[Shyheels]

I marvel at the optimism (and dishonest salesmanship!) I saw in an ad for Bitcoin on the CNN website this morning - Bitcoin smashes $7000 and rising! No sign of slowing down!

Neglecting to mention of course that it was at $20,000 only six weeks ago and has been in near total freefall ever since...

Edited February 10, 2018 by Shyheels

[alphax]

One more use of crypto/Bitcoin's regulation-bypassing qualities is bypassing credit card (VISA/MC) censorship of adult content/art/porn.

I'm surprised nobody's done that yet. The censorship has been awful.

Bloomberg has an article on it.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/sex-businesses-are-finding-willing-partners-in-cryptocurrencies

[kneehighs]

On 2/8/2018 at 8:44 PM, alphax said:

(post self deleted)  If I can't say something nice, I shouldn't say it at all.

@kneehighsI hope your investment capital and of course your person are both safe and sound.

Thanks.  They are.  For me, I'll be patient with the market. Also, look back on how the tech space acted between 1990–2000.  Even if one had the worst timing and bought every market peak from 1990 to 1998, one would have still made money.  Every pullback—no matter how steep or how long—was followed by higher highs. I expect the same to be true in cryptos for many years to come.  I firmly believe that we’re still early and all you have to do to make a ton of money is position-size right (dollar cost average long positions) and just ride out the volatility.  

 

[Shyheels]

An important difference is that when you buy and sell on the stock market you are dealing in shares in companies with physical assets - factories, branches, shops, offices, headquarters - and which produce tangible goods and services. 

Crypto is purely an abstraction, and a totally speculative abstraction at that. If you could convince people to believe in fairy dust, you could do just as well, and have just as convincing and solid a market.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Shyheels

[kneehighs]

I've found that when people really believe in their opinions, they'll have the courage to back it with money.  Money gives character to one's opinion, since there's no risk to typing the written word.  Those without skin in the game cheapen their opinion.

To just mention how crypto is different from dot com, without also stating how they are also the same,  is just selling half the whole truth. 

VeChain, Icon, and Stellar have consumptive value to start with....and as dot com was a new technology then,  so blockchain/crypto is a new technology now.

Spectators always like to make lots of noise, but they're not in the arena playing the game.

  

[Shyheels]

One can legitimately form an opinion about a speculative investment or indeed anything else for that matter without plunging and making a bet, either for or against. In fact, unless they have a gambling addiction it is what most people do. They observe, evaluate, form opinions and keep on strolling.  I can walk past a racetrack and not feel an overwhelming urge to to back a horse even if some dead-accurate turf tout is whispering in my ear  that Mother’s Ruin is a sure thing in the fifth race.

Not everyone lives to gamble, and the opinions of those who do not are entirely valid and legitimate. 

I would add that in journalism throwing money into the mix considerably cheapens an opinion, or at least the perception of its worth. It is well-considered thoughtful neutrality that carries a premium.

Opinion and passionate belief are two very different things. If I was passionate about crypto, either for or against, I might place a bet, but I am not. I think it’s a scam and a bubble and I wouldn’t want anything to do with it, but it is not something I think about except when I respond to this thread. It is of no personal or potential interest to me whatever. I think of crypto and especially the ads urging investment pretty much the way I think of those scamming emails one gets from Nigeria - vaguely comical, but nothing much more than that.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Shyheels

[alphax]

Wow, back to USD10,000. 

The 3rd largest bitcoin wallet bought close to $400 million more between Feb 6th and 9th at an average of about $8,400.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/anonymous-trader-buys-400-million-of-bitcoin-2018-02-16

I have no idea what that means in terms of the future.

 

[Shyheels]

One does indeed wonder (and worry!) about the future when one reads of such transactions - especially if, as seems likely, the people who bought the $400 million in Bitcoin last week are likely to be North Koreans, with a nuclear program to fund and sanctions to evade. Or maybe it was it Iran. Or a drug cartel. Possibly even the bankers for ISIS. 

It won't be a pension fund.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Shyheels

[Gudulitooo]

On 13/02/2018 at 8:25 AM, kneehighs said:

Spectators always like to make lots of noise, but they're not in the arena playing the game.

  

At least spectators have a different viewpoint and more time to think. That also prevent them to fully understand some whys.

What I don't understand is that, while I agree with the crypto currency's supporters view that economy should not be controlled by only one organisation (e.g. one central bank per money), you could have come with other ideas than giving trying to give the control to every user.

For example, in our Ve republic in France, the powers are shared by 3 independant chambers, and it seems to work. We could have chosen 10 though.

Anyway, in the end the blockchain will be controlled by the few ones that invested enough into mining activies. They will neither be elected by the users, nor chosen amongs the most qualified organisations, and even not amongst the most honest and upstanding. So I think this is the most epic fail of this century.

Until they develop a new way for the miners to prove their goodwill (honesty is even not part of the dedicated wikipedia article)....

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Gudulitooo

[alphax]

Bitcoin may not be the best indicator for black market capitalization in the future because you can trace IP addresses associated with the coin ownership.

Monero, another crypto, is gaining popularity with dark markets due to better privacy tech.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/03/technology/bitcoin-popularity-criminals-monero/index.html

[Shyheels]

That’s nice to hear...

[kneehighs]

Research is showing that bitcoin is uncorrelated to other assets. That means that whether the price of gold, stocks, bonds, or commodities goes boom or bust, bitcoin is unaffected.That’s important to Wall Street.

Why? Because they build portfolios of uncorrelated assets to tame risk.

The classic example is the 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds we mentioned earlier. When one asset class goes up, the other generally goes down.  Owning just one can lead to big ups and downs. But owning both smooths out the performance.  Done right, a well-built portfolio can earn better returns with less volatility. Or in Wall Street terms: better risk-adjusted returns.  It’s every portfolio manager’s dream.

So when JPMorgan comes out and says bitcoin can help investors diversify portfolios, it’s a big deal.

It’s a green light to the entire industry that bitcoin is a viable asset class and needs to be owned.  And JP Morgan did just that.  Coupled with Goldman Sachs and their reported release of a crypto trading desk, Wall Street is about to jump on board.

Shyheels--this is a circular discussion with no end to the same talking points of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.  Why don't we do this.  You put 100 pounds in escrow in a bank.  I'll put the equivalent in crypto and make the info available for everyone to see here.  And on the last day of this year, let's see who has more money. 

Otherwise, this endless circularity is respectfully a waste of time.

[Shyheels]

I agree it is a circular discussion. I wish you luck with your investments.

[Gudulitooo]

I note Kneehighs you may have evolved your viewpoint of the cryptocurrency from being a "currency" to now being an "asset".

 

[SF]

I am just an "old school" guy.  I invest my money in the Stock Market, US and Global, S&P 500, Total Stock Market, some Specialty Funds a smattering of Bonds and even a little bit of cash.  Done fine by me for my needs.....   

With the extra earnings I even buy some high heel shoes!!  

Enjoy the ride, I know I have..  Have fun.....   sf

[kneehighs]

Key points that keep me as bullish on crypto as ever:

1.  Millennials are the largest generation ever.

2.  92% of Millennials don't trust banks

3.  Each generation drives it's own new technology uptake.  Yes, there are exceptions as some have a psychological temperament predisposed to resist new tech uptake.

4.  Millennials are just now starting to enter into their peak earnings/investment years.  This correlates well with crypto's rise to public consciousness in 2017..

5.  The Silent Generation's peak investment years correlated with a 15X explosion in the price of gold.

6.  The Baby Boomer's peak investment years correlated with the stock market boom of the 80's-90's. Millennials not trusting banks will drive crypto adoption.

7.  The financial rules that were true for the Silent Generation to Baby Boomer Generation are changing.  Being profitable at IPO is the easiest case in point. 

8.  The total market cap of crypto being larger than many countries equity market's will stimulate interest from Wall Street.

9.  Crypto is an uncorrelated asset.  Unlike the relationship between stocks and bonds, crypto performs independently of the price of Gold, S&P, and commodities.  This will also stimulate added interest from Wall Street.

10.   This is not a bubble, but an emerging asset class. 

Edited March 24, 2018 by kneehighs