Blockchain Revolution: from the internet of information to the internet of value

[kneehighs]

Bitcoin is at $71,000

and 

Ethereum $4,000

Now that optimism and belief are returning, things will heat up even more

[kneehighs]

This guy in this conversation always told me "trust the FED" and constantly mocked me buying Bitcoin

Bitcoin was at $5K USD at this time. This was March 2020. Bitcoin never went back to $5K ever again after this.

Naturally I playfully have to occasionally give him a hard time for his decision to not buy Bitcoin back then.

Per usual, most don't understand risk to reward is in your favor when the rest of the world is fearful. Now that Bitcoin is consolidating near 70K, most are becoming greedy. 

And that my friends has me playing defense now. 

 

Edited March 26 by kneehighs

[Bubba136]

2 hours ago, kneehighs said:

This guy in this conversation always told me "trust the FED" and constantly mocked me buying Bitcoin

Bitcoin was at $5K USD at this time. This was March 2020. Bitcoin never went back to $5K ever again after this.

Naturally I playfully have to occasionally give him a hard time for his decision to not buy Bitcoin back then.

Per usual, most don't understand risk to reward is in your favor when the rest of the world is fearful. Now that Bitcoin is consolidating near 70K, most are becoming greedy. 

And that my friends has me playing defense now. 

 

Is anyone buying it at this price?

 

[kneehighs]

18 hours ago, Bubba136 said:

Is anyone buying it at this price?

 

Larry Fink, CEO of Black Rock talked about that today.  The BTC ETF is the most successful ETF in history. But the ETF is a narrative. Narratives change rapdily.  In 2023, the narrative was recession while markets rallied.  Even Elon Musk was wrong. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin halving narrative (daily BTC issued gets cut in half) occurs in April. 😕That doesn't address the demand side of your question, but it does address the supply side. Many ETF issuers also can't promote their ETF until +90 days after initial issuance for regulatory reasons. So with 6 trillion in cash sidelined from the 2023/2024 recession, and a supply shock (halving) and demand surge (ETF) you get three new narratives to pump price from. 

So for me, I'll rely on Technical Analysis indicators to bypass narrative hype.  As price accelerates through the Optimism, Belief, Thrill and Euphoria stages of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet cycle, dips get shorter and shorter in time. The shorter the time the dips average, the greater the risk the top is near. Why? Because in the final parabolic stage, dips barely last more than a few days. Coupled with Super Bowl ads for crypto, Coinbase app being #1 in the app store, and multiple mainstream celebrity crypto endorsements the top will be near. 

But that is for cycle traders (about 4 years according to the liquidity cycles).  For those who hold BTC for 10-15 years +, they'll hold BTC into a whole new global financial reset when the USD loses it's default global reserve status

 

 

 

Edited March 27 by kneehighs

[kneehighs]

Trump talks pro crypto at a rally.

Democrats (Warren and Gensler who is the SEC anti crypto chair) suddenly realize crypto is a voting issue. 

SEC requests for accelerated amendments to ETH ETF applicants signaling Ethereum ETF approval imminent.

ETH ETF gets approved

Crypto markets rocket to the moon. Welcome back to the fabled alt coin bull run, where everything skyrockets. Irrational upside.

 

[Bubba136]

2 hours ago, kneehighs said:

Trump talks pro crypto at a rally.

Democrats (Warren and Gensler who is the SEC anti crypto chair) suddenly realize crypto is a voting issue. 

SEC requests for accelerated amendments to ETH ETF applicants signaling Ethereum ETF approval imminent.

ETH ETF gets approved

Crypto markets rocket to the moon. Welcome back to the fabled alt coin bull run, where everything skyrockets. Irrational upside.

 

What is the outlook and your suggestion?

 

[kneehighs]

On 5/21/2024 at 2:58 PM, Bubba136 said:

What is the outlook and your suggestion?

 

I think Bitcoin still rockets towards 100K this cycle.  And maybe ETH rockets towards 10K.  My base case for when this cycle ends is still end of Q4'24-early Q2 '25. It's flexible though and subject to change based on market conditions.

How long one chooses to hold Bitcoin really depends on one's financial goals. If holding for 10+ years you will definitely want to self custody.  Hold it in a cold storage wallet. Keep the Private keys and password access secure, probably in your will statement, probably in a safety deposit box where heirs can access it. This is important because one day Wall Street will probably create derivatives of the BTC ETF.  Wall Street has a history of creating more paper claims to assets than there are underlying assets.  At that stage the phrase "not your keys, not your coins" will solve the problem.  Those with self custodied Bitcoin will be protected because they will be able to prove their ownership On Chain. 

If it's just a short term trade, then it depends on how much profit ROI you are happy with. If a 1.5X is good for you, sell at 1.5X and be happy.  Even if price pumps 5X after you sell. 

Hope that helps.

 

 

 

Edited June 2 by kneehighs

[Bubba136]

Thanks a lot to think about.

[kneehighs]

There's no simple answer unfortunately.  It's really about calculating your risk to reward ratio.

A 1:3 risk to reward ratio is considered good.  

To get that with Bitcoin at today's prices of 70K:

Risk--sell Bitcoin if price decreases under the cost of production of one Bitcoin, 60K. So Risk = 10K.  

Reward--if you expect Bitcoin to hit 100K, your reward is 100K-70K = 30K

10K/30K = 1:3

That's an oversimplification of a short term trade.

[Bubba136]

Watch out!  The tax man comets….:-)

[kneehighs]

11 hours ago, Bubba136 said:

Watch out!  The tax man comets….:-)

You're not IRS are you Bubba? 

[Bubba136]

3 hours ago, kneehighs said:

You're not IRS are you Bubba? 

Hell NO!
I’ve spent my entire life trying to avoid them 

All I know is there is an agency like the IRS in every country.  They all have the same goal:  SQUEEZE as much our of you as they can. Especially EXPATs.

Edited Wednesday at 04:40 PM by Bubba136

[kneehighs]

hahaha! Currently I'm in Georgia. No crypto tax on personal capital gains here (for now). In the US, I'm a tax resident of Florida, so no capital gains. So only the IRS mafia.

I have a 2d passport and am seriously considering giving up my US passport as part of my retirement plan too. Time will tell.

[Shyheels]

That’s what I did after more than 40 years of living outside the US and with Australian citizenship and no intention whatever of ever living in the US (I’ve not even set foot in the place in 15 years and only rarely before that)

[Bubba136]

International living is a crapshoot.  Unrest is everywhere.  Australia is more like the USA than any where else that I’ve ever been.  Europe is imploding.  Final result? We’re either reverting to conditions like the 1600’s or we’re going to look like Mars. 
like it says in the Bible says: “The meek will inherit the earth .“ But, in all reality. the wealthy will distroy it.

 

[Shyheels]

Australia is considerably different than the US - perhaps not if you are only visiting, there may seem to be superficial similarities, but as a place to live, work, raise children, the differences are huge.

we live in troubled times, sure., but for overall standard of living and quality of life there are many worthy alternatives to the US.

I’ve never been a fan of the idea that any country is “the greatest in the world”

[Bubba136]

But I guess it all depends on where you eat your oat meal and drink your beer.  My as long as it’s hot and cold.

Edited Friday at 03:34 AM by Bubba136

[Shyheels]

1 hour ago, Bubba136 said:

But I guess it all depends on where you eat your oat meal and drink your beer.  My as long as it’s hot and cold.

That’s true - and as long as you feel at home there

[Bubba136]

On 6/13/2024 at 4:46 AM, kneehighs said:

hahaha! Currently I'm in Georgia. No crypto tax on personal capital gains here (for now). In the US, I'm a tax resident of Florida, so no capital gains. So only the IRS mafia.

I have a 2d passport and am seriously considering giving up my US passport as part of my retirement plan too. Time will tell.

Don’t be too hasty. The way the world is spinning who knows where you will wind up.  It’s entirely possible that the USA part of North America will wind up becoming four separate countries.  One Liberal.  One Conservative.  One Hispanic and one Black.  And, they all will be fighting each other.  Each one struggling to dominate the others.  Then, what difference will it make which passport you have?

[kneehighs]

9 hours ago, Bubba136 said:

Don’t be too hasty. The way the world is spinning who knows where you will wind up.  It’s entirely possible that the USA part of North America will wind up becoming four separate countries.  One Liberal.  One Conservative.  One Hispanic and one Black.  And, they all will be fighting each other.  Each one struggling to dominate the others.  Then, what difference will it make which passport you have?

Hasty?  I've been thinking of doing this since 2020.  My father has paid over $600K USD in taxes to the US government and hasn't stepped foot in the US in over 20 years. That's a real crap deal if you ask me. All for what?  Pride to be an American.

I could give up my US citizenship right this very minute and save on capital gains forever since my second passport doesn't tax me on capital gains or income made outside of the homeland country. Secondly, my second passport doesn't carry the political stigma the US passport does.  Third, my second passport grants me visa free access to Russia. Honestly, the quality of life in Moscow is 9/10.  Far higher than anywhere in the US at far less cost. No homeless people littering the streets. No illegal immigrants clogging up the streets selling stolen goods. Clean and efficient public transport. Cheap food. Far lower cost of living.

The world is dividing into in the West (US/EU/Australia) versus EuraAsia (Russia/China). This is the generational call for the next 20-40 years. I appreciate your concern that the US could become 4 different countries, but that's just a possibility on paper. The east versus west divide is already happening and that's the world I'm planning for.

On 6/13/2024 at 5:32 PM, Shyheels said:

Australia is considerably different than the US - perhaps not if you are only visiting, there may seem to be superficial similarities, but as a place to live, work, raise children, the differences are huge.

we live in troubled times, sure., but for overall standard of living and quality of life there are many worthy alternatives to the US.

I’ve never been a fan of the idea that any country is “the greatest in the world”

100% agree.  There are many alternatives. The US is still a land of opportunity, but it's over rated, imho.  Raise a family around Transgender Story hour, homeless people everywhere, and illegal immigrants crashing property prices? Can do way better in Moscow even.

Edited Friday at 09:24 PM by kneehighs

[Shyheels]

Russia may have a high standard of living but they also have an iron-fisted leader who takes imprisoning and murdering opponents as a matter of course. While this may not matter much to people who are not politically active and merely trying to get by in their lives - the peasants had no issues with Vlad the Impaler as a leader - but it certainly needs to go into the equation about whether or not a country is a nice place to live.  Aside from the fact that their leader has great enthusiasm for invading his neighbours and does not trouble himself overly much about the human cost on either side - something to consider if you are of draft age or have sons who are.

I do not miss my US passport in the least. I've nothing against America or Americans, but after 43 years away it's a foreign country to me and I've no desire to live there, or even visit.  I've raised children in both Australia and England. They are happy and well adjusted and at the start of what appears to be successful lives.

[kneehighs]

5 hours ago, Shyheels said:

Russia may have a high standard of living but they also have an iron-fisted leader who takes imprisoning and murdering opponents as a matter of course. While this may not matter much to people who are not politically active and merely trying to get by in their lives - the peasants had no issues with Vlad the Impaler as a leader - but it certainly needs to go into the equation about whether or not a country is a nice place to live.  Aside from the fact that their leader has great enthusiasm for invading his neighbours and does not trouble himself overly much about the human cost on either side - something to consider if you are of draft age or have sons who are.

One could say the same about the leadership in the US towards killing innocent people. I'm aware of Russia's politics. As long as a person stays out of politics, all is good.  Hard to believe for people who haven't spent substantial time in the country.

5 hours ago, Shyheels said:

I do not miss my US passport in the least. I've nothing against America or Americans, but after 43 years away it's a foreign country to me and I've no desire to live there, or even visit.  I've raised children in both Australia and England. They are happy and well adjusted and at the start of what appears to be successful lives.

Cool!  I didn't know you had raised kids in AU and England. Curious how your boating life is coming along!

[Bubba136]

14 hours ago, kneehighs said:

Hasty?  I've been thinking of doing this since 2020.  My father has paid over $600K USD in taxes to the US government and hasn't stepped foot in the US in over 20 years. That's a real crap deal if you ask me. All for what?  Pride to be an American.

I could give up my US citizenship right this very minute and save on capital gains forever since my second passport doesn't tax me on capital gains or income made outside of the homeland country. Secondly, my second passport doesn't carry the political stigma the US passport does.  Third, my second passport grants me visa free access to Russia. Honestly, the quality of life in Moscow is 9/10.  Far higher than anywhere in the US at far less cost. No homeless people littering the streets. No illegal immigrants clogging up the streets selling stolen goods. Clean and efficient public transport. Cheap food. Far lower cost of living.

The world is dividing into in the West (US/EU/Australia) versus EuraAsia (Russia/China). This is the generational call for the next 20-40 years. I appreciate your concern that the US could become 4 different countries, but that's just a possibility on paper. The east versus west divide is already happening and that's the world I'm planning for.

100% agree.  There are many alternatives. The US is still a land of opportunity, but it's over rated, imho.  Raise a family around Transgender Story hour, homeless people everywhere, and illegal immigrants crashing property prices? Can do way better in Moscow even.

I guess the old saying “you take your choice and pay the price” is applicable here.  Everyone’s situation is different.  KH, your father had his choice and, for some reason, he chose to endure an unfavorable situation.  You make decisions based upon “your” evaluation of many different aspects that are factual today. And fitting your decision into the situation that exists today might be the best choice. However, given the confusing circumstances that are occurring in today’s world, the decision you choose today might not be the one you would choose tomorrow. You might be one of those fleeing Egypt heading for the promised land or a simple man seeking a place with highly favorable tax policies, in the secular world, decisions changing conditions are made by men who make them in a heart beat without notice.

[kneehighs]

55 minutes ago, Bubba136 said:

I guess the old saying “you take your choice and pay the price” is applicable here.  Everyone’s situation is different.  KH, your father had his choice and, for some reason, he chose to endure an unfavorable situation.  You make decisions based upon “your” evaluation of many different aspects that are factual today. And fitting your decision into the situation that exists today might be the best choice. However, given the confusing circumstances that are occurring in today’s world, the decision you choose today might not be the one you would choose tomorrow. You might be one of those fleeing Egypt heading for the promised land or a simple man seeking a place with highly favorable tax policies, in the secular world, decisions changing conditions are made by men who make them in a heart beat without notice.

For me, life is like a game of poker, unlike chess where all outcomes are predictable; almost all decisions involve risk management, from small bets to all-in moments. I take responsibility for the outcomes--even if sometimes luck or even bad luck plays a role in the outcome.

[Bubba136]

12 hours ago, kneehighs said:

For me, life is like a game of poker, unlike chess where all outcomes are predictable; almost all decisions involve risk management, from small bets to all-in moments. I take responsibility for the outcomes--even if sometimes luck or even bad luck plays a role in the outcome.

Luck or bad luck!  Just remember, we are all at the mercy or the “crooked dealer!

[kneehighs]

Family leaves Texas to live in Russia. Has to learn to use cryptocurrency to get money from the $USD into the $RUB (LMAO).  They see themselves as "moral refugees" from the US (escaping the gay political agenda).  The list of families leaving the US for Russia is growing and growing. 

 

Edited Sunday at 07:43 PM by kneehighs

[Bubba136]

You know, there are not many countries belonging to the United Nations that I haven’t visited or lived in. And I have met expats in almost all of them. Most country’s have organized American Expat groups that associate with each other to stay current with events occurring in the US. Most of the people I met represent American companies. Some emigrated for one reason or another. That being said, observing from the outside, most countries have more in common than most people think.  The three things are:

1. A roof over their head.

2. Food on the table.

3. clothes on their back.

And, the 4th item is: a better life for their children,  Although some are working so hard to get the first three, they have little time for children.

 I do not begrudge anyone for their reasons for leaving or wanting to stay anywhere. I sincerely hope that everyone, everywhere achieves, finds or accomplishes what ever they, seek or dream of for a better life.

As for me, personally, I have more resources than I can ever use and more money than I can ever spend.  So, I guess, even at my age, I should hastily flee because I am downtrodden?

No thanks. Right now, I’m trying to sort out which person that is running a country has done more to harm their homeland. The head of Russia or President Biden. I guess its a toss up.

 

[Shyheels]

I’m no fan of President Biden or ex-President Trump either, but I do think that classing either with Vladimir Putin is a bit rich.  As far as I know neither of the two American presidents have murdered any of their many critics, at home or abroad, or routinely taken foreigners hostage for use as political pawns or invaded a neighbouring country in an all out land-grab war that had cost many thousands of lives.

Although born in the US I have lived virtually all of my adult life in other countries. I have never been involved with any ex-pat associations but have always lived as a local, amongst locals, and without reference to America in any way. Perhaps that’s why I have no sentiment for the place, although I had a very agreeable childhood there

[Bubba136]

4 hours ago, Shyheels said:

I’m no fan of President Biden or ex-President Trump either, but I do think that classing either with Vladimir Putin is a bit rich.  As far as I know neither of the two American presidents have murdered any of their many critics, at home or abroad, or routinely taken foreigners hostage for use as political pawns or invaded a neighbouring country in an all out land-grab war that had cost many thousands of lives.

Although born in the US I have lived virtually all of my adult life in other countries. I have never been involved with any ex-pat associations but have always lived as a local, amongst locals, and without reference to America in any way. Perhaps that’s why I have no sentiment for the place, although I had a very agreeable childhood there

There’s not one man on the planet that can find fault with any decision that you have made concerning your life or the way you live.  The decision you have made are the right ones for you. There isn’t any sane individual that I am aware of that consciously makes any decisions that negatively impacts their lives.  If you are happy with your lifestyle and life situation, then I say “good on you!.”  Because 97% of the people alive are not satisfied with their life, lifestyle or status in society.  It’s only through hindsight that any one can say “gosh, had I only turned right instead of left I would have been so much better off.  The most important consideration on your part is that you are satisfied, happy and content with where you are at.

I say Congratulations.  “Keep on keeping on.”  Because you are one of the few.
 

Edited 1 hour ago by Bubba136

[Shyheels]

Thank you. I have been very, very fortunate