Market "gurus" and Zappos Hits do NOT confirm NDP

[dr1819]

On other forums, people are using Googlehits to measure relevance of a concept.

Here, it's Zapposhits we've used to measure availability of heels, in general, in our size.

Call me jealous (cause I am), but I'm getting sick of those who say, "Ooh! Ooh! Look at what I just got!" when the largest size is a US Women's 10.

Yech.

If I had such small feet, I'd be able to jump up and down like a kid on Christmas day, too.

But I don't, so I have to live with the unbelievably meager leftovers. While they're improving, they still have a LONG way to go.

FACT: Woman's shoe sizes follow the Normal Distribution Curve (Bell Curve). It's fairly smooth, with 8.5 being the median size these days in the Western World (US, Canad, UK, EU, etc.)

Consider the recent search on Zappos, women's high heels:

Size 8: 13,071 items found

Size 9: 12,559 items found (ok, fairly consistant with the normal curve)

Size 10: 12,302 items found (still consistant...)

Size 11: 3,753 items found (WOAH! Who pushed the down button on the elevator??? This is less than a third of the previous figure!)

Size 12: 577 items found (WOOOAHHH!!!! Still accelerating! Now less than one-sixth of the previous figure)

Size 13: 230 items found (About half the previous figure - sort of a burp)

Size 14: 17 items found (BAM!!!! We hit rock bottom, because...)

Size 15: 3 items found (and...)

Size 16: no items found

REASON: The marketing models are based primarily off of old NDP data. For those of you who don't know, NDP is the company, founded 1967, whose market data drives much of Fortune 500 company efforts, including those in apparel.

NOW - Here's some REALITY for you:

Columbia University Study: http://jscms.jrn.columbia.edu/cns/2005-03-01/bradley-bigfeet

Temple College Study: http://www.temple.edu/news_media/sop0408_04.html

Quote from another study: According to the market research firm NDP Group, today one-third of American women wear a size eight or larger shoe, versus 11 percent in 1987. Why? Blame sports! Foot bones grow in response to stress, and the huge post-Title-IX increase in girls and women participating in sports, combined with the huge increase in numbers of women working out at the gym, have led to an increase in average women's foot size.

Well, folks, it's not just exercise. Japanese women, between 1900 and 1945 got plenty of exercise, but they remained very short (and even those who didn't bind their feet still had very small feet). Fast forward to today, where young (circa 25) Japanese women are the same height as their US counterparts.

The problem? Nutrition. These days we feed our kids enough vitamins they can't help but grow to their maximum potential size, and the increasing emphasis on sports has increased the relative width by one full measure (A are now B, etc.), outpacing even the increase in foot length. So, women's feet are longer, and much wider than they were 30 years ago.

That holds with my family. I'm 2" shorter than my father, but I wear a size larger, and a size wider (he had very narrow feet). My brother's just one inch taller, but he wears 3 sizes larger, and one wider.

Back to NDP: Their data attests to the fact that there should be approximately 9,000 offerings in size 11, 5,000 offerings in size 12, 2,000 offerings in size 13, 1,000 offerings in size 14, and about 5,000, 200, and 50 offerings in size 15, 16, and 17.

Furthermore, here's the real kicker - their data suggests that the vast majority of women who wear sizes 11 through 15 WANT the same offerings as enjoyed by women who wear a size 8.5, including heel height, if not proportionality.

The problem with the marketing departments of these idiotic companies is that they errantly believe that taller women want lower heels.

NOT TRUE! Say the long-term results.

Then, they turn around and show how their sales numbers "prove" it, when they're only offering 1/4 the number of size 11s as they do size 10s.

It's the case of the tail wagging the dog. They don't offer enough, or in the same styles, and people don't buy, so they claim there's no demand, when in fact, demand abounds!

The stupid companies are cutting their profits in half.

The smart companies, like Nordstroms, who've long realized that larger-proportioned women want the same styles as shorter women, have long been providing stylish heels in larger sizes.

By the way, Nordstroms was founded by a gentleman from Holland, whose family held several significantly larger females who were always disappointed with the size 9 max limit of the day.

SO: PLEASE shop Nordstroms.

This is not an endorsement of a particular company. If you find another company that's offering mainstream shoes (like Zappos) in sizes 13 and beyond, shop them too. Please, especially before you shop Pleaser.

Unless, of course, the only style you'll ever wear are a pear of cheap, plastic, FMPs.

As for me, I'd rather enjoy the very large selection of styles from which to choose. The only way we'll every get that is if people choose to support those stores who embrace that philosophy for all sizes.

Well, thank you.

[sscotty727]

SO: PLEASE shop Nordstroms.

Well, I would if I had money to burn, which I don't. Same holds for Zappos, I can't afford most of the decent shoes there (fortunately I am a size 11 so I can find something in my size without TOO much effort).

Here is something interesting though. Back when I first got block heeled boots, Steve Madden used to sell size 11 on their site and I got several pair. All of a sudden, they ONLY went to 10 on THEIR site. Why I said THEIR site is because the style I wear to work everyday (Snatch) only went up to a size 10 on THEIR site, however I have gotten SEVERAL pair on Ebay in a size 11 and could have had even more (I have an older pair I wear on the weekends, a newer pair I wear to work daily, and 3 pair I have in reserve when these fall apart...yes, I tend to buy extra pairs when I find something I like since it is rare to get nice shoes). So that brings the total up to 5 pair of Steve Madden Snatch I own, yet not 1 pair was sold on their website, but they were available via Ebay.........

Explain that one please?

Scotty

[BobHH]

Even Nordstrom offerings are pretty meager in size 13, and places like JC Penney, or Macy's, or even Target, Kohls, etc. don't go above 10. I do have a pair of nice thong wedges from Nordstrom which I wear to the salon. Even my U.S. Olympic Team flip-flops get left behind when I am walking. Suddenly, one of them is back there!

[Guy N. Heels]

Well, lessee here. Companies don't have to make a profit and so they can afford to be totally stubborn about the fashions and the sizes they sell - right? After all, the investors really don't care if the company (store) is making a profit or paying any returns on the investments - right? So clearly DR1819 has a legitimate gripe about the availability of shoe sizes that fit him - or is it just an axe to grind due to faulty reasoning?

Here in the States it is the profit motive that drives everything from the price of apples to zippers. Even things that we would normally expect our government(s) to dispense, like justice, are often commodities that are bought, sold and traded by market forces. So for anyone to suggest that the availability of shoes in certain styles or sizes is NOT driven by market forces is to beg the question of the suggestor's grip on reality. About the only way that it could not be driven by market forces is for one to be willing and able to procure custom made footwear - regardless of cost. That would, of course, require one to either be independently wealthy or have far more discretionary funds than I've ever had.

I think that any rational person knows that the manufacturers are generally more than willing to produce whatever they can sell at a profit. That means that if JC Penny, Sears, Wall Mart or whomever is willing to buy footwear in any given size - up to and including 60 cm with 30 cm heels - that the manufacturers will be glad to produce it, after they've cashed the check.

But anybody of reasonable intelligence should know that no store or outlet is going to place an order for some product - any product - unless they have a reasonable basis to believe that they can sell that product at a profit in a timely manner. And right here is where we get to the market forces driving this whole scenario, because nothing demonstrates a lack of understanding like a store or an outlet with shelves and a warehouse full of some product that isn't moving. In the final analysis it doesn't really matter WHY the product isn't moving. The mere fact that some buyer made a wrong call and bought something that the public doesn't want is enough to get people fired! The bottom line here is that when the outlets have a reason to believe that they can move a boatload of size 13/14/15/16/or 17 shoes - they will buy them!

I have to disagree with your argument, DR1819. It really doesn't have a foot to stand on. Besides, I can find plenty of shoes in a size 10 right off the shelf, so I don't see any problem there either.

[Aly]

...and places like JC Penney, or Macy's, or even Target, Kohls, etc. don't go above 10.

Actually, the local Kohl's here carry a fair variety in size 11 - and they have great clearance sales. Several months ago I bought a pair of knee boots - round toe with a 4" block heel: original price marked was $74.88, marked down to $15, on final clearance for $3.75

Aly

[BobHH]

I wear a couple of 12s which are really too small, as I need at least a 13 USW. I remember the days when I had some size 10s, as nothing larger was available. Now they were really too small

[jim]

Hi DR. I'm a US 9.5--10 and would love to shop at Zappos as they really do have some nice styles. Unfortunately, the buggers won't export... jim

[dr1819]

So that brings the total up to 5 pair of Steve Madden Snatch I own, yet not 1 pair was sold on their website, but they were available via Ebay.........

Explain that one please?

Scotty

Could be knockoffs. In South Korea, it's illegal to import copies of brand-named items. But it's perfectly legal for the Koreans to make them and sell them to others.

It could also be part of a tiered marketing plan, where they limit online sizes to 10 and sell larger sizes through retailers. Sometimes retailers will ask manufacturers for variations, and so long as the retailer is willing to take the loss, the manufacturer will make it. But if the manufacturer doesn't think they'll sell enough in size 11 to make it worth their while, they'll limit it to a size 10.